Oklahoma @

Cincinnati

Sat, Sep 23
FOX
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 347
Odds: Cincinnati +14, Total: 57.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Over (57.5)  Oklahoma (-14)  40   CINCINNATI  25

The total looks low here. Oklahoma has been playing offense at an elite level, averaging 55.7 points and 7.5 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average offense. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed only 21.7 ppg but they’ve given up 5.6 yppl to teams that would average only 5.3 yppl against an average defense. Oklahoma isn’t likely to reach their 56 points average but they should move the ball very well against a below average Cincy defense.

The Bearcats’ offense opened the season with 66 points on 670 yards against Eastern Kentucky and the averaged 459 yards at 5.8 yppl against Pitt and Miami-Ohio, who are collectively better than average defensively (they’d allow 5.2 yppl to an average offense).

I think the total is low because Oklahoma has allowed just 9.3 points per game but they’ve only been 0.7 yppl better than average when factoring in how bad the offenses they’ve played are. Cincinnati should move the ball at a decent clip in this game.

The total opened at 60.5 points and the weather is neutral, so there is significant value going over in this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Oklahoma
  • Cincinnati
OKL
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 39.3 32.7
  • Run Yards 181.7 90.0
  • YPRP 4.6 2.8




Pass





  • Pass Comp 26.3 18.7
  • Pass Att 31.7 33.0
  • Comp % 83.1% 56.6%
  • Pass Yards 358.0 209.0
  • Sacks 0.3 1.7
  • Sack Yards 3.0 9.7
  • Sack % 1.0% 4.8%
  • Pass Plays 32.0 34.7
  • Net Pass Yards 355.0 199.3
  • YPPP 11.1 5.7

Total

  • Total Plays 71.3 67.3
  • Total Yards 536.7 289.3
  • YPPL 7.5 4.3

TO


  • Int 0.3 2.0
  • Int % 1.0% 6.1%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.7
  • Turnovers 0.7 2.7
 
  • Points 55.7 9.3
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