Game Analysis

TOLEDO (-17)  39   Ohio  27

Toledo has a potent offense lead by accurate quarterback Logan Woodside (71.4% completions) and a collection of big-play receivers (15.3 yards per catch) and the Rockets should score around their season average of 40.7 points against a sub-par Ohio defense (0.3 yards per play worse than average) that has the same rating as the average team that Toledo has faced this season. Ohio, however, should be able to score enough points to stay within the big number.

The Bobcats’ offense is 0.6 yards per play worse than average for the season (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) but that unit has been buoyed by the insertion of quarterback Quinton Maxwell into the starting lineup in place of Greg Windham. Windham had his moments but he is a well below average passer (4.6 yards per pass play aginst teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average QB) while Maxwell has completed 66% of his 61 passes while averaging 7.9 yppp (although against teams that would allow 7.5 yppp). Some of that is due to positive variance but there is more than enough evidence to declare that Maxwell is an upgrade and the Bobcats should move the ball well against a bad Toledo defense that’s surrendered 6.2 yards per play to FBS teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average team. I like Ohio plus the points and the over in this game.