Game Analysis
TOLEDO (-17) 39 Ohio 27
Toledo has a potent offense lead by accurate quarterback Logan Woodside (71.4% completions) and a collection of big-play receivers (15.3 yards per catch) and the Rockets should score around their season average of 40.7 points against a sub-par Ohio defense (0.3 yards per play worse than average) that has the same rating as the average team that Toledo has faced this season. Ohio, however, should be able to score enough points to stay within the big number.
The Bobcats’ offense is 0.6 yards per play worse than average for the season (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) but that unit has been buoyed by the insertion of quarterback Quinton Maxwell into the starting lineup in place of Greg Windham. Windham had his moments but he is a well below average passer (4.6 yards per pass play aginst teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average QB) while Maxwell has completed 66% of his 61 passes while averaging 7.9 yppp (although against teams that would allow 7.5 yppp). Some of that is due to positive variance but there is more than enough evidence to declare that Maxwell is an upgrade and the Bobcats should move the ball well against a bad Toledo defense that’s surrendered 6.2 yards per play to FBS teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average team. I like Ohio plus the points and the over in this game.
Rush
-
Run Plays
39.6
32.0
-
Run Yards
197.5
118.3
-
YPRP
5.1
4.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.0
21.5
-
Pass Att
34.4
34.0
-
Comp %
58.2%
63.2%
-
Pass Yards
222.0
238.3
-
Sacks
1.0
3.5
-
Sack Yards
5.6
25.4
-
Sack %
2.8%
9.3%
-
Pass Plays
35.4
37.5
-
Net Pass Yards
216.4
212.9
-
YPPP
6.1
5.7
Total
-
Total Plays
75.0
69.5
-
Total Yards
419.5
356.5
-
YPPL
5.6
5.1
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.1
-
Int %
2.2%
3.3%
-
Fumbles
0.6
1.0
-
Turnovers
1.4
2.1
Rush
-
Run Plays
43.3
28.7
-
Run Yards
214.3
145.2
-
YPRP
5.1
5.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
23.3
16.3
-
Pass Att
31.7
30.0
-
Comp %
73.7%
54.4%
-
Pass Yards
327.7
232.2
-
Sacks
1.2
2.5
-
Sack Yards
6.3
16.2
-
Sack %
3.6%
7.7%
-
Pass Plays
32.8
32.5
-
Net Pass Yards
321.3
216.0
-
YPPP
9.8
6.6
Total
-
Total Plays
76.2
61.2
-
Total Yards
542.0
377.3
-
YPPL
7.1
6.2
TO
-
Int
0.5
0.5
-
Int %
1.6%
1.7%
-
Fumbles
0.2
0.3
-
Turnovers
0.7
0.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/03/16 Texas State |
54-56 |
-21.0
L
|
51/36 |
236/142 |
4.6/3.9 |
2/1 |
28/41 |
46/56 |
392/399 |
0/2 |
0/6 |
8.5/6.4 |
628/541 |
6.5/5.5 |
09/10/16 @ Kansas |
37-21 |
+2.5
W
|
53/13 |
344/33 |
6.5/2.5 |
0/2 |
19/18 |
36/29 |
167/200 |
1/1 |
0/1 |
4.6/6.7 |
511/233 |
5.7/5.4 |
09/17/16 @ Tennessee |
19-28 |
+27.0
W
|
30/39 |
88/227 |
2.9/5.8 |
0/0 |
23/19 |
46/27 |
230/176 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
5.0/5.9 |
318/403 |
4.2/5.8 |
09/24/16 Gardner-Webb |
37-21 |
0.0
W
|
43/35 |
235/203 |
5.5/5.8 |
0/1 |
25/13 |
38/20 |
298/134 |
1/0 |
2/4 |
7.5/5.6 |
533/337 |
6.4/5.7 |
10/01/16 @ Miami Ohio |
17-7 |
-3.0
W
|
44/25 |
168/91 |
3.8/3.6 |
0/2 |
7/18 |
18/34 |
31/164 |
1/2 |
4/6 |
1.4/4.1 |
199/255 |
3.0/3.9 |
10/08/16 Bowling Green |
30-24 |
-12.0
L
|
35/35 |
191/158 |
5.5/4.5 |
0/1 |
21/22 |
29/38 |
203/216 |
1/3 |
0/4 |
7.0/5.1 |
394/374 |
6.2/4.9 |
10/15/16 Eastern Mich |
20-27 |
-7.0
L
|
28/27 |
144/108 |
5.1/4.0 |
1/1 |
26/29 |
43/39 |
283/334 |
1/0 |
2/1 |
6.3/8.4 |
427/442 |
5.8/6.6 |
10/22/16 @ Kent State |
14-10 |
-3.5
W
|
33/46 |
219/187 |
6.6/4.1 |
2/0 |
11/12 |
19/29 |
127/80 |
1/0 |
0/3 |
6.7/2.5 |
346/267 |
6.7/3.4 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/02/16 @ Arkansas St. |
31-10 |
+4.0
W
|
43/34 |
191/172 |
4.4/5.1 |
1/0 |
23/11 |
31/25 |
371/98 |
0/0 |
0/4 |
12.0/3.4 |
562/270 |
7.6/4.3 |
09/10/16 Maine |
45-3 |
0.0
W
|
32/41 |
191/174 |
6.0/4.2 |
1/0 |
13/9 |
27/25 |
329/61 |
1/0 |
0/1 |
12.2/2.3 |
520/235 |
8.8/3.5 |
09/17/16 Fresno St. |
52-17 |
-20.5
W
|
55/22 |
318/86 |
5.8/3.9 |
0/0 |
16/13 |
28/26 |
257/168 |
0/0 |
0/5 |
9.2/5.4 |
575/254 |
6.9/4.8 |
09/30/16 @ BYU |
53-55 |
+4.0
W
|
39/42 |
199/358 |
5.1/8.5 |
0/0 |
30/11 |
38/21 |
493/228 |
2/0 |
2/3 |
12.3/9.5 |
692/586 |
8.8/8.9 |
10/08/16 @ Eastern Mich |
35-20 |
-17.0
L
|
48/20 |
228/62 |
4.8/3.1 |
0/1 |
25/20 |
31/38 |
244/255 |
0/1 |
1/0 |
7.6/6.7 |
472/317 |
5.9/5.5 |
10/15/16 Bowling Green |
42-35 |
-28.0
L
|
40/32 |
236/189 |
5.9/5.9 |
0/0 |
23/25 |
30/38 |
305/323 |
1/1 |
3/2 |
9.2/8.1 |
541/512 |
7.4/7.1 |
10/22/16 Central Mich |
31-17 |
-10.5
W
|
35/22 |
152/101 |
4.3/4.6 |
0/1 |
23/18 |
32/32 |
258/224 |
0/1 |
1/1 |
7.8/6.8 |
410/325 |
6.0/5.9 |