Game Analysis

Ohio State (-10 ½)  28   WISCONSIN  14

Wisconsin has a very good defense and they are particularly good defending the run. However, the Badgers’ defense is similar to that of Alabama, which is very good against traditional running attacks but can have difficulty against teams that run a read-option attack. Alabama has struggled with Auburn and Texas A&M in recent years and the last time that Wisconsin faced Ohio State’s read-option offense was two years ago and the Buckeyes ran for 310 yards at 8.4 yards per rushing play in a 59-0 win in the Big 10 Championship game. My math model favors Ohio State by 10 points but I don’t think Wisconsin’s run defense is going to be relatively as good against Ohio State’s brand of offense.

On the other side of the ball, I just don’t see a mediocre Wisconsin attack (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) doing much damage against an elite Ohio State defense that’s allowed just 3.8 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team. Ohio State has kept good offensive teams Oklahoma and Indiana in check (just 24 and 17 points allowed, respectively) and they held their other 3 opponents to an average of just 4.3 points. Wisconsin, meanwhile, managed just 16 points against LSU and 7 points against Michigan – the only other really good defensive teams they’ve faced. I like the Buckeyes based on the matchup and wouldn’t be surprised if the score of this game were something like 31-7 – even though the math model says that the line is correct.