Game Analysis

Ohio State (-1)  31   OKLAHOMA  30

There is no doubt in my numbers that Ohio State is a better team than Oklahoma applies to a very strong 141-48-2 ATS non-conference home underdog situation that I’d prefer not to go against. Both of these teams are elite offensively with two of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Baker Mayfield for Oklahoma and J.T. Barrett for Ohio State, but the Buckeyes have a big edge defensively.

Ohio State has yielded only 3.2 yards per play and 6.5 points per game to two decent offensive teams (Bowling Green and Tulsa) and they Buckeyes’ look like they could be one of the best defensive teams in the nation this season. Oklahoma is good defensively, but not as good. The Sooners allowed only 5.1 yppl to Houston, which is actually only 0.8 yppl better than what an average defense would allow to the Cougars, and their starting defense gave up just 4.0 yppl to UL Monroe last week before the backups allowed 6.7 yppl in the second half to skew the stats. However, the 4.0 yppl allowed in the first half is not particularly impressive given that UL Monroe’s offense would average only 4.4 yppl on the road against an average FBS defense. I had Oklahoma’s defense rated at 0.8 yppl better than average heading into the season and so far their starters have been 0.7 yppl better than average. Good, but not on the same level as Ohio State’s defense.

My ratings favor Ohio State by 4 points in this game but I am not interested in going against the 141-48-2 ATS situation that favors the Sooners so I’ll pass on this game.