Game Analysis

Ohio State (-8)  28   Notre Dame  18

If all games played by each team were weighed the same the math would favor Ohio State by 5.5 points, but Ohio State has been relatively better against better teams (especially on offense) while Notre Dame has been relatively worse against better teams (particularly on offense).

For the season, the Ohio State offense was 1.8 yards per play better than average with QB Will Howard in the game, averaging 7.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. However, the Buckeyes’ attack has raised their level of play in the playoffs, averaging 7.6 yppl in 3 games against defensive units that would allow 4.5 yppl to an average team and over the course of the season the Ohio State offense has been 2.0 yppl better than average in 7 games against very good defensive teams Oregon (twice), Penn State, Indiana, Michigan, Tennessee, and Texas, who are all at least 1.0 yppl better than average. The Buckeyes averaged 6.6 yppl in those games.

Notre Dame’s defense has been 1.4 yppl better than average this season, which is 0.2 yppl better than the average of those good defensive teams that the Buckeyes’ faced, but the Irish are without star DT Rylie Mills, who still has 3 more sacks than any other player on the Notre Dame defense despite missing 2 games. That unit has played well in two games without Mills, but I still value him at a bit more than 0.1 yppl and 0.8 points. The two best offensive teams that Notre Dame faced this season are Louisville and USC and the Irish gave up and average of 496 total yards at 6.5 yppl and 29.5 points per game against those potent offensive teams and Ohio State’s offense most resembles that of the Trojans, who scored 35 points on 557 yards at 7.2 yppl against the Irish and should have scored more given that they had two passes intercepted in or at the end zone in that game. This game is also being played in a dome, which elevates the passing numbers for each team and usually leads to more passing. I project 420 yards at 6.6 yppl for Ohio State.

The Notre Dame offense was 0.9 yppl better than average over the course of the season, but that unit racked up huge numbers against much less talented teams – averaging 485 yards per game at 7.6 yppl against 5 average or worse defensive teams (Purdue, Stanford, Navy, Virginia and Army). The Irish offense was 0.7 yppl better than average in 10 games against better than average defensive teams, which is think is a reasonable level to expect from a unit that clearly has some deficiencies in the pass game. Riley Leonard did throw the ball well in the semifinal win over Penn State but his also manage just 79 yards on 25 pass plays against Georgia the game before that an has generally struggled against better than average pass defenses (5.8 yppp against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average QB). The injury sustained last week by LT Anthonie Knapp should also have a negative impact on that offense, as he’s projected to be worth 0.1 yppl.

I don’t think the Notre Dame offense is nearly good enough against an Ohio State defense that is elite defending the run (3.9 yprp against teams that would average 5.3 yprp against an average defense) and the pass (4.6 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.8 yppp). Oregon, which ranks 4th best in the nation in compensated yards per play on offense, is the only team to score more than 17 points against the Buckeyes’ defense and the list of teams that did not surpass 17 points includes 3 teams that are better offensively than Notre Dame, whose average points per game was enhanced by 6 defensive touchdowns scored (against none allowed). Ohio State has only allowed more than 5.1 yppl in one game all season (the game at Oregon) and I project just 294 yards at 4.8 yppl for the Irish in this game, even with perfect conditions.

I can see the total going either way, as the math projects 47.3 total points but has ND scoring 19 points, which I don’t think will happen. I’m not recommending a play on the side but I’d rather than Ohio State if I was inclined to make a small wager on the game.