Game Analysis
MICHIGAN (-3.5) 25 Ohio State 22
Ohio State is slightly better on a compensated yards per play basis on both offense (+1.3 yppl to +1.2 yppl) and on defense (1.6 yppl better than average vs 1.4 yppl), but Michigan is projected to run 6 more plays from scrimmage because they have more of a ball-control offense while Ohio State has more short drives due to big plays.
Overall the math projects Michigan to have an edge of 35 total yards, the Wolverines have an edge in special teams and in projected turnovers and the model favors Big Blue by 5.5 points.
However, Ohio State is 16-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more since 2009 and the underdog usually wins these end of season games between unbeaten teams. My database goes back to 1980 and since then there have been 6 games between unbeaten teams in the final regular season game of the season. In those games the underdog is 5-1 straight up and 6-0 ATS with an average line of +4.75 points – including Michigan winning 45-23 at Columbus last year as an 8-point underdog.
I’m not touching this game but if you like Ohio State you might want to consider putting some on the money line.
Rush
-
Run Plays
31.5
30.6
-
Run Yards
161.3
120.6
-
YPRP
5.1
3.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.0
15.3
-
Pass Att
31.4
30.5
-
Comp %
67.0%
50.1%
-
Pass Yards
287.8
146.9
-
Sacks
1.6
2.0
-
Sack Yards
11.2
13.0
-
Sack %
4.7%
6.2%
-
Pass Plays
32.9
32.5
-
Net Pass Yards
276.6
133.9
-
YPPP
8.4
4.1
Total
-
Total Plays
64.5
63.1
-
Total Yards
437.9
254.6
-
YPPL
6.8
4.0
TO
-
Int
0.5
0.6
-
Int %
1.4%
1.8%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.4
-
Turnovers
0.9
0.9
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.5
27.5
-
Run Yards
185.0
98.7
-
YPRP
5.1
3.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.8
13.2
-
Pass Att
24.0
25.2
-
Comp %
74.3%
52.3%
-
Pass Yards
236.0
138.6
-
Sacks
1.2
2.6
-
Sack Yards
9.8
17.8
-
Sack %
4.7%
9.2%
-
Pass Plays
25.2
27.7
-
Net Pass Yards
226.2
120.8
-
YPPP
9.0
4.4
Total
-
Total Plays
61.6
55.3
-
Total Yards
411.2
219.6
-
YPPL
6.7
4.0
TO
-
Int
0.4
1.3
-
Int %
1.5%
5.0%
-
Fumbles
0.2
0.5
-
Turnovers
0.5
1.7
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 @ Indiana |
23-3 |
-30.0
L
|
31/30 |
150/83 |
4.8/2.8 |
0/0 |
22/9 |
36/21 |
261/71 |
1/0 |
0/2 |
7.3/3.1 |
411/154 |
6.1/2.9 |
| 09/09/23 Youngstown State |
35-7 |
0.0
W
|
26/31 |
162/116 |
6.2/3.7 |
0/0 |
24/17 |
33/26 |
396/118 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
11.6/4.2 |
558/234 |
9.3/4.0 |
| 09/16/23 Western Kentucky |
63-10 |
-29.0
W
|
32/32 |
207/82 |
6.5/2.6 |
1/2 |
22/22 |
27/39 |
350/212 |
1/1 |
1/1 |
12.5/5.3 |
557/294 |
9.3/4.1 |
| 09/23/23 @ Notre Dame |
17-14 |
-3.0
T
|
26/37 |
135/182 |
5.2/4.9 |
0/0 |
21/16 |
37/24 |
231/178 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
6.1/7.1 |
366/360 |
5.7/5.8 |
| 10/07/23 Maryland |
37-17 |
-17.0
W
|
29/33 |
85/124 |
2.9/3.8 |
0/0 |
19/21 |
29/41 |
299/178 |
0/2 |
3/2 |
9.3/4.1 |
384/302 |
6.3/4.0 |
| 10/14/23 @ Purdue |
41-7 |
-18.0
W
|
35/32 |
182/141 |
5.2/4.4 |
2/0 |
17/14 |
30/35 |
266/118 |
0/0 |
3/3 |
8.1/3.1 |
448/259 |
6.6/3.7 |
| 10/21/23 Penn St. |
20-12 |
-4.5
W
|
37/22 |
93/85 |
2.5/3.9 |
1/0 |
22/18 |
35/42 |
276/155 |
0/0 |
2/4 |
7.5/3.4 |
369/240 |
5.0/3.5 |
| 10/28/23 @ Wisconsin |
24-10 |
-14.5
L
|
37/23 |
213/100 |
5.8/4.3 |
1/1 |
17/18 |
26/39 |
197/152 |
2/0 |
4/2 |
6.6/3.7 |
410/252 |
6.1/3.9 |
| 11/04/23 @ Rutgers |
35-16 |
-19.0
T
|
28/42 |
148/236 |
5.3/5.6 |
0/0 |
19/10 |
26/25 |
180/122 |
1/1 |
1/1 |
6.7/4.7 |
328/358 |
6.0/5.3 |
| 11/11/23 Michigan St. |
38-3 |
-31.5
W
|
32/28 |
177/102 |
5.5/3.6 |
0/0 |
26/12 |
34/24 |
364/88 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
10.7/3.4 |
541/190 |
8.2/3.5 |
| 11/18/23 Minnesota |
37-3 |
-27.5
W
|
34/27 |
222/76 |
6.5/2.8 |
0/1 |
22/11 |
32/19 |
223/81 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
6.8/3.9 |
445/157 |
6.6/3.3 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 East Carolina |
30-3 |
-36.0
L
|
31/26 |
150/103 |
4.8/4.0 |
0/0 |
26/15 |
31/29 |
290/112 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
9.4/3.9 |
440/215 |
7.1/3.9 |
| 09/09/23 UNLV |
35-7 |
-37.5
L
|
33/26 |
184/77 |
5.6/3.0 |
0/0 |
24/13 |
28/26 |
313/117 |
0/0 |
0/5 |
11.2/3.8 |
497/194 |
8.1/3.4 |
| 09/16/23 Bowling Green |
31-6 |
-40.5
L
|
29/32 |
184/95 |
6.3/3.0 |
1/1 |
8/14 |
13/21 |
130/105 |
3/2 |
1/3 |
9.3/4.4 |
314/200 |
7.3/3.6 |
| 09/23/23 Rutgers |
31-7 |
-24.0
T
|
38/22 |
210/84 |
5.5/3.8 |
0/0 |
15/11 |
21/21 |
205/180 |
0/1 |
2/0 |
8.9/8.6 |
415/264 |
6.8/6.1 |
| 09/30/23 @ Nebraska |
45-7 |
-18.0
W
|
51/17 |
249/66 |
4.9/3.9 |
0/0 |
17/14 |
23/25 |
214/175 |
0/1 |
0/4 |
9.3/6.0 |
463/241 |
6.3/5.2 |
| 10/07/23 @ Minnesota |
52-10 |
-18.5
W
|
32/37 |
186/132 |
5.8/3.6 |
0/0 |
16/5 |
23/15 |
252/37 |
0/2 |
0/2 |
11.0/2.2 |
438/169 |
8.0/3.1 |
| 10/14/23 Indiana |
52-7 |
-33.0
W
|
38/28 |
186/100 |
4.9/3.6 |
0/2 |
19/14 |
22/29 |
245/111 |
0/2 |
4/4 |
9.4/3.4 |
431/211 |
6.7/3.5 |
| 10/21/23 @ Michigan St. |
49-0 |
-24.5
W
|
33/26 |
140/71 |
4.2/2.7 |
0/0 |
28/16 |
35/29 |
354/111 |
0/2 |
1/3 |
9.8/3.5 |
494/182 |
7.2/3.1 |
| 11/04/23 Purdue |
41-13 |
-32.5
L
|
30/28 |
146/117 |
4.9/4.2 |
1/0 |
24/11 |
37/28 |
301/111 |
0/1 |
3/1 |
7.5/3.8 |
447/228 |
6.4/4.0 |
| 11/11/23 @ Penn St. |
24-15 |
-4.5
W
|
43/34 |
241/172 |
5.6/5.1 |
0/1 |
7/11 |
8/23 |
50/65 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
5.6/2.7 |
291/237 |
5.6/4.1 |
| 11/18/23 @ Maryland |
31-24 |
-19.0
L
|
43/27 |
159/69 |
3.7/2.6 |
0/1 |
12/21 |
23/31 |
134/205 |
1/2 |
1/5 |
5.6/5.7 |
293/274 |
4.4/4.3 |
Ohio St.
@ 
Michigan