Game Analysis
Lean – Under (45) – Ohio (-5.5) 21 Northern Illinois 16
I liked this game to go under even before looking at the 17 to 20 mph winds with a chance of rain. Windy conditions lead to more running due to less effective passing and neither team is expected to run well, as Ohio is a bad running team (4.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.6 yprp to an average team) and the Bobcats defend the run well (3.9 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yprp).
Both of these teams also play at a slow pace that will likely get even slower with more running. I’ll lean Under 44 or more.
Rush
-
Run Plays
35.2
22.2
-
Run Yards
145.0
86.4
-
YPRP
4.1
3.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.2
17.0
-
Pass Att
32.8
29.0
-
Comp %
58.5%
58.6%
-
Pass Yards
228.0
159.0
-
Sacks
0.8
2.8
-
Sack Yards
4.2
13.8
-
Sack %
2.4%
8.8%
-
Pass Plays
33.6
31.8
-
Net Pass Yards
223.8
145.2
-
YPPP
6.7
4.6
Total
-
Total Plays
68.8
54.0
-
Total Yards
368.8
231.6
-
YPPL
5.4
4.3
TO
-
Int
1.0
1.4
-
Int %
3.0%
4.8%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.4
2.0
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.3
35.2
-
Run Yards
179.2
181.0
-
YPRP
5.4
5.1
Pass
-
Pass Comp
16.7
14.7
-
Pass Att
30.2
26.7
-
Comp %
55.3%
55.0%
-
Pass Yards
191.5
163.5
-
Sacks
1.7
2.3
-
Sack Yards
12.3
15.2
-
Sack %
5.2%
8.0%
-
Pass Plays
31.8
29.0
-
Net Pass Yards
179.2
148.3
-
YPPP
5.6
5.1
Total
-
Total Plays
65.2
64.2
-
Total Yards
358.3
329.3
-
YPPL
5.5
5.1
TO
-
Int
1.0
0.7
-
Int %
3.3%
2.5%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.5
1.2
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/26/23 @ San Diego St. |
13-20 |
+2.0
L
|
29/30 |
123/148 |
4.2/4.9 |
0/1 |
26/17 |
52/27 |
266/164 |
3/0 |
2/0 |
4.9/6.1 |
389/312 |
4.7/5.5 |
| 09/02/23 LIU |
27-10 |
0.0
W
|
42/18 |
210/68 |
5.0/3.8 |
1/0 |
12/21 |
15/33 |
96/138 |
1/2 |
1/4 |
6.0/3.7 |
306/206 |
5.3/3.7 |
| 09/09/23 @ Florida Atl. |
17-10 |
+3.5
W
|
44/11 |
155/27 |
3.5/2.5 |
1/0 |
18/23 |
29/42 |
199/158 |
2/2 |
1/4 |
6.6/3.4 |
354/185 |
4.8/3.2 |
| 09/16/23 Iowa St. |
10-7 |
+3.0
W
|
34/21 |
138/43 |
4.1/2.0 |
0/0 |
16/17 |
32/24 |
135/232 |
0/2 |
0/1 |
4.2/9.3 |
273/275 |
4.1/6.0 |
| 09/23/23 @ Bowling Green |
38-7 |
-13.0
W
|
34/19 |
143/84 |
4.2/4.4 |
1/2 |
16/17 |
19/32 |
219/80 |
0/2 |
1/3 |
11.0/2.3 |
362/164 |
6.7/3.0 |
| 10/07/23 Kent State |
42-17 |
-25.5
L
|
35/30 |
166/130 |
4.7/4.3 |
0/0 |
20/11 |
32/20 |
300/92 |
0/1 |
0/6 |
9.4/3.5 |
466/222 |
7.0/4.0 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 @ Boston College |
27-24 |
+8.5
W
|
48/27 |
170/153 |
3.5/5.7 |
1/0 |
14/17 |
30/38 |
172/161 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
5.7/4.1 |
342/314 |
4.4/4.8 |
| 09/09/23 Southern Illinois |
11-14 |
0.0
L
|
30/17 |
94/94 |
3.1/5.5 |
0/0 |
23/16 |
38/24 |
266/129 |
3/0 |
4/5 |
6.3/4.4 |
360/223 |
5.0/4.8 |
| 09/16/23 @ Nebraska |
11-35 |
+11.0
L
|
19/43 |
46/218 |
2.4/5.1 |
0/1 |
15/14 |
36/24 |
76/151 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
1.9/6.0 |
122/369 |
2.1/5.4 |
| 09/23/23 Tulsa |
14-22 |
-4.0
L
|
40/44 |
182/214 |
4.6/4.9 |
1/1 |
17/8 |
29/20 |
128/74 |
2/2 |
0/3 |
4.4/3.2 |
310/288 |
4.5/4.3 |
| 09/30/23 @ Toledo |
33-35 |
+13.5
W
|
30/43 |
195/261 |
6.5/6.1 |
1/1 |
21/16 |
31/20 |
249/281 |
0/0 |
2/0 |
7.5/14.1 |
444/542 |
7.0/8.6 |
| 10/07/23 @ Akron |
55-14 |
-5.0
W
|
33/37 |
388/146 |
11.8/3.9 |
0/0 |
10/17 |
17/34 |
184/94 |
0/1 |
1/4 |
10.2/2.5 |
572/240 |
11.2/3.2 |
Ohio
@ 
Northern Ill