Game Analysis
Lean – Miami-Ohio (-2) 27 Ohio 21
Miami is better on offense by 0.4 yppl and the Redhawks are better on defense by 0.8 yppl, which takes into account Ohio having faced South Alabama’s backup quarterback and Kent State’s 3rd-string QB (who managed just 32 yards on 23 pass plays).
Miami-Ohio beat Ohio 30-20 at home back in week 8 while averaging 6.6 yards per play and allowing just 3.8 yppl to the Bobcats. The yards per play numbers aren’t likely to be that lopsided in the rematch but my math model projects Miami-Ohio to gain 352 yards at 6.4 yppl while limiting Ohio to 338 yards at 5.3 yppl. Miami’s advantage in yards per play is more valuable than Ohio’s projected advantage in plays from scrimmage (9.3 more than Miami) and the Redhawks also have much better special teams.
Miami-Ohio is a Lean at -2.5 or less.
Rush
-
Run Plays
37.8
28.2
-
Run Yards
219.4
121.5
-
YPRP
5.8
4.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
15.0
19.2
-
Pass Att
24.2
31.2
-
Comp %
62.1%
61.5%
-
Pass Yards
184.9
206.7
-
Sacks
1.3
2.6
-
Sack Yards
7.0
18.1
-
Sack %
5.2%
7.6%
-
Pass Plays
25.5
33.8
-
Net Pass Yards
177.9
188.6
-
YPPP
7.0
5.6
Total
-
Total Plays
63.3
61.9
-
Total Yards
397.3
310.1
-
YPPL
6.3
5.0
TO
-
Int
0.9
0.8
-
Int %
3.8%
2.4%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.7
1.5
Rush
-
Run Plays
26.9
31.9
-
Run Yards
148.5
143.6
-
YPRP
5.5
4.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
16.8
18.8
-
Pass Att
28.9
32.4
-
Comp %
57.9%
58.1%
-
Pass Yards
230.3
180.9
-
Sacks
2.1
2.3
-
Sack Yards
11.8
13.9
-
Sack %
6.7%
6.7%
-
Pass Plays
31.0
34.8
-
Net Pass Yards
218.6
167.0
-
YPPP
7.1
4.8
Total
-
Total Plays
57.9
66.7
-
Total Yards
367.1
310.6
-
YPPL
6.3
4.7
TO
-
Int
0.8
0.9
-
Int %
2.9%
2.8%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.7
-
Turnovers
1.2
1.6
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/31/24 @ Syracuse |
22-38 |
+17.5
W
|
34/29 |
276/135 |
8.1/4.7 |
0/0 |
18/27 |
30/39 |
161/345 |
1/1 |
4/1 |
4.7/8.6 |
437/480 |
6.4/7.0 |
| 09/07/24 South Alabama |
27-20 |
+2.0
W
|
34/26 |
210/159 |
6.2/6.1 |
1/1 |
20/23 |
28/37 |
194/219 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
6.5/5.8 |
404/378 |
6.3/5.9 |
| 09/14/24 Morgan State |
21-6 |
0.0
W
|
32/31 |
178/91 |
5.6/2.9 |
1/0 |
16/15 |
20/30 |
215/120 |
3/1 |
2/2 |
9.8/3.8 |
393/211 |
7.3/3.3 |
| 09/21/24 @ Kentucky |
6-41 |
+20.0
L
|
32/39 |
128/232 |
4.0/5.9 |
1/0 |
8/19 |
19/27 |
110/264 |
1/0 |
0/2 |
5.8/9.1 |
238/496 |
4.7/7.3 |
| 09/28/24 Akron |
30-10 |
-10.0
W
|
49/14 |
245/25 |
5.0/1.8 |
2/0 |
12/25 |
18/38 |
165/162 |
0/2 |
2/5 |
8.3/3.8 |
410/187 |
5.9/3.3 |
| 10/12/24 @ Central Mich |
27-25 |
-3.0
L
|
33/38 |
289/172 |
8.8/4.5 |
2/1 |
13/14 |
22/22 |
137/120 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
5.7/5.2 |
426/292 |
7.5/4.8 |
| 10/19/24 @ Miami Ohio |
20-30 |
+3.5
L
|
30/29 |
125/152 |
4.2/5.2 |
0/0 |
22/14 |
43/21 |
166/178 |
2/0 |
3/0 |
3.6/8.5 |
291/330 |
3.8/6.6 |
| 10/26/24 Buffalo |
47-16 |
-6.0
W
|
41/29 |
258/150 |
6.3/5.2 |
0/1 |
14/24 |
19/39 |
231/234 |
1/1 |
0/4 |
12.2/5.4 |
489/384 |
8.2/5.3 |
| 11/06/24 @ Kent State |
41-0 |
-20.5
W
|
42/29 |
262/82 |
6.2/2.8 |
1/0 |
15/8 |
25/18 |
149/32 |
0/1 |
0/5 |
6.0/1.4 |
411/114 |
6.1/2.2 |
| 11/13/24 Eastern Mich |
35-10 |
-10.5
W
|
31/31 |
157/126 |
5.1/4.1 |
0/1 |
22/18 |
32/30 |
277/140 |
1/3 |
0/3 |
8.7/4.2 |
434/266 |
6.9/4.2 |
| 11/20/24 @ Toledo |
24-7 |
+1.5
W
|
55/21 |
231/57 |
4.2/2.7 |
0/3 |
11/14 |
19/26 |
129/151 |
1/0 |
0/3 |
6.8/5.2 |
360/208 |
4.9/4.2 |
| 11/29/24 Ball St. |
42-21 |
-17.5
W
|
40/22 |
274/77 |
6.9/3.5 |
1/2 |
9/29 |
15/47 |
201/298 |
1/0 |
1/4 |
12.6/5.8 |
475/375 |
8.5/5.1 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/31/24 @ Northwestern |
6-13 |
+3.0
L
|
19/30 |
66/153 |
3.5/5.1 |
0/2 |
22/18 |
37/30 |
202/178 |
2/0 |
4/0 |
4.9/5.9 |
268/331 |
4.5/5.5 |
| 09/14/24 Cincinnati |
16-27 |
+4.0
L
|
16/32 |
54/220 |
3.4/6.9 |
1/1 |
25/21 |
39/34 |
344/181 |
1/0 |
3/2 |
8.2/5.0 |
398/401 |
6.9/5.9 |
| 09/21/24 @ Notre Dame |
3-28 |
+27.5
W
|
24/35 |
140/264 |
5.8/7.5 |
0/2 |
14/17 |
36/27 |
97/160 |
2/0 |
4/1 |
2.4/5.7 |
237/424 |
3.7/6.7 |
| 09/28/24 Massachusetts |
23-20 |
-17.0
L
|
34/40 |
180/175 |
5.3/4.4 |
0/0 |
16/9 |
25/22 |
169/169 |
1/0 |
2/1 |
6.3/7.3 |
349/344 |
5.7/5.5 |
| 10/05/24 @ Toledo |
20-30 |
+6.5
L
|
21/36 |
64/101 |
3.0/2.8 |
0/0 |
23/27 |
46/38 |
286/307 |
1/2 |
2/1 |
6.0/7.9 |
350/408 |
5.1/5.4 |
| 10/12/24 @ Eastern Mich |
38-14 |
-2.5
W
|
31/37 |
199/159 |
6.4/4.3 |
1/1 |
10/27 |
13/42 |
222/184 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
17.1/4.1 |
421/343 |
9.6/4.2 |
| 10/19/24 Ohio |
30-20 |
-3.5
W
|
29/30 |
152/125 |
5.2/4.2 |
0/0 |
14/22 |
21/43 |
178/166 |
0/2 |
0/3 |
8.5/3.6 |
330/291 |
6.6/3.8 |
| 10/26/24 Central Mich |
46-7 |
-12.5
W
|
35/34 |
297/116 |
8.5/3.4 |
0/0 |
18/7 |
24/17 |
251/52 |
0/1 |
4/2 |
9.0/2.7 |
548/168 |
8.7/3.2 |
| 11/05/24 @ Ball St. |
27-21 |
-12.0
L
|
25/19 |
126/71 |
5.0/3.7 |
0/0 |
16/23 |
32/36 |
210/260 |
0/2 |
1/4 |
6.4/6.5 |
336/331 |
5.8/5.6 |
| 11/13/24 Kent State |
34-7 |
-30.5
L
|
38/34 |
277/100 |
7.3/2.9 |
2/1 |
10/11 |
22/24 |
195/83 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
8.5/3.1 |
472/183 |
7.7/3.0 |
| 11/19/24 Northern Ill |
20-9 |
-1.5
W
|
24/36 |
110/154 |
4.6/4.3 |
0/1 |
15/17 |
24/34 |
214/88 |
1/1 |
4/4 |
7.6/2.3 |
324/242 |
6.2/3.3 |
| 11/29/24 @ Bowling Green |
28-12 |
+3.0
W
|
27/20 |
117/85 |
4.3/4.3 |
0/0 |
18/27 |
28/42 |
255/176 |
2/1 |
0/4 |
9.1/3.8 |
372/261 |
6.8/4.0 |
Ohio
vs 
Miami Ohio