Game Analysis

KANSAS (-2 ½)  31   Ohio  24

Kansas was on my early list of possible Best Bets this week when the line opened with the Jayhawks as a 2 point underdog. However, that line moved sharply early on Monday morning and the value is gone. I played Ohio under 7 ½ wins as one of season win totals and I picked up a lot of value when the Bobcats lost as a 21 point home favorite to Texas State last week. Kansas beat up on a horrendous Rhode Island team that is about 40 points worse than an average FBS team, so try not to overreact to that 55-6 win. Kansas does have a very good secondary but the run defense is still horrible, as allowing Rhode Island to average 4.5 yards per rushing play is not good given that the Rams would average 3.6 yprp on the road against an average FBS team. Ohio will have success running the ball but the Bobcats’ pass attack should be kept in check.

The Kansas offense was expected to be much better with 8 returning starters in the 2^nd year of the system and last week was a good indication of their improvement as 8.2 yards per play was more than projected against a Rhode Island defense that would allow about 7.8 yppl on the road to an average FBS team. Ohio’s defense rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average and I see the Jayhawks having pretty good success throwing the football after both Ryan Willis and Montell Cozart played well last week.

Overall my ratings only favor Kansas by 2 ½ points, so the line move took away the value. However, I still like Kansas here on the basis of a very strong 59-12 ATS subset of a 152-69-3 ATS situation and a 56-14 ATS game 2 indicator.