Game Analysis

Notre Dame (+1)  23   Georgia  22

Georgia’s offense averaged 6.1 yppl against FBS teams that would combine to allow just 5.1 yppl to an average attack, but the Bulldogs are without two-year starting quarterback Carson Beck, who was injured on the last series of the first half in the SEC Championship game against Texas. Gunner Stockton led the team in the second half and the Bulldogs ran the ball more with Stockton behind center (24 runs and 22 pass plays) while averaging just 4.5 yards per play. That’s not bad considering that Texas would allow just 4.0 yppl to an average offense, but it’s 0.5 yppl worse than Georgia’s season offensive rating. I expect the offense to better after weeks of Stockton practicing with the first team and finding plays that he’s comfortable with, as the coaching staff did not have him throwing the fall down the field against the Longhorns. Stockton was 12 of 16 passing, but he averaged just 5.9 yards per completion. I’m sure the coaches realize that short passes and the run game are not going to beat Notre Dame, and I expect a more normal offense from the Bulldogs in this game – although with more running than normal given that Stockton likes to run with the ball (6 runs for 26 yards in one half against Texas). It’s also relatively easier to run against the Irish, especially with one of their star defensive tackles out, than it is to throw against their elite secondary.

Stockton doesn’t have enough of a track record to assess his ability based on his stats and I’m certainly not going to base his passing level on 18 passes for just 61 yards against Texas given that the staff were extremely conservative with the plays they were letting him run. I will lower Georgia’s pass play rating by 0.5 yards per pass play, which is about normal for a backup quarterback with similar recruiting rating as the starter. I do expect more running from the Bulldogs in this game and a much slower pace of play, as Georgia averaged just 1.80 plays per minute of possession with Stockton in the game against Texas. I don’t think the pace will be that slow, but it should be slower (I’ve lowered the projected total plays in the game by 5).

Notre Dame’s defense is one of the best in the nation with an elite defensive backfield that resulted in a pass defense that was #2 in my compensated yards per pass play ratings (4.5 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.6 yppp against an average defense). That Irish trust their defensive backs enough to stack the box to help out the run defense, which was 0.7 yards per rushing play better than average. However, the Irish will be without DT Rylie Mills, who led the team with 7.5 sacks, which is a lot for an interior lineman. I value Mills at 1.7 points but the Irish still have stud Howard Cross III in the middle of that line and quality linebackers. I project 339 yards at 5.3 yppl for Georgia in this game (adjusted for dome conditions).

Notre Dame’s offense averaged 38.9 points and 6.6 yards per play this season against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack. However, the Irish racked up huge offensive numbers against a few mediocre to bad defensive teams and they were relatively worse against better defensive teams. Adjusting for that leads to a rating of +0.8 yppl for this game and they were +0.9 yppl in their playoff win over Indiana.

The key to beating the Irish is to stop the run and force Riley Leonard to beat you with his arm. However, the Irish have an elite rushing attack (RB Love average 7.4 ypr) and Georgia isn’t as good defending the run (0.7 yprp better than average) as they are defending the pass (1.2 yppp better than average). Overall, the Georgia defense was 0.9 yppl better than average but the Bulldogs have had a very low interception percentage if 5 seasons under defensive coordinator Glen Schuman and they had just 8 interceptions in 12 games against FBS teams this season. Riley Leonard isn’t likely to turn the ball over against that defense (Leonard has thrown just 6 interceptions in 13 games). I project 349 yards at 5.9 yppl for the Irish in this game (adjusted for playing in a dome).

The math favors Notre Dame by 2.2 points with 45.5 total points, but Kirby Smart has a very good history in post-season games (12-6 ATS), including 8-1 ATS when not favored by more than 4 points (6-3 SU in those games). I still trust the Notre Dame defense, which is the best unit on the field, to control a Georgia offense with a backup quarterback and a mediocre ground game (just 5.0 yprp for the Bulldogs this season).