Game Analysis

Alabama (-19.5)  41  Notre Dame  23

Notre Dame played their worst game of the season in the ACC Championship game against Clemson, which appears to have inflated this line by a couple of points. Just a few weeks before that the Irish dominated a very good North Carolina team 31-17 while outgaining the Tarheels by 182 yards – and they also beat Clemson in their regular season meeting. The Tigers were not 100% on either side of the ball for that first game but it was still an impressive performance by the Irish against an elite team.

The Irish are a good team, rating at 0.8 yards per play better than average on offense, 0.7 yppl better than average defensively and solid in special teams, but they are not an elite team and are likely to suffer another huge loss in a major bowl/playoff game.

Alabama has the best offense in the nation, averaging 49.7 points per game and rating at 2.6 yppl better than average offensively. That rating was adjusted down 0.4 yppl for the absence of superstar WR Jaylen Waddle, who averaged an amazing 19.2 yards per target (not per reception, per target!) before getting injured. That Crimson Tide defense was 1.2 yppl better than average for the season but had two games in which they gave up an average of 47 points and 7.6 yppl to elite offensive teams Mississippi and Florida. It’s possible that Notre Dame could have success offensively given that Alabama was relatively worse against better offensive teams.

The math shows some value on Notre Dame but not enough to play it, especially given how poorly the Irish have performed in major post-season games.