Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **WISCONSIN (-24.5)  39   Northwestern  7

It’s obvious that Northwestern’s pedestrian attack (5.1 yards per play and 18.2 points per game) isn’t expected to get to double-digit points in this game, as that unit has averaged just 8.7 points in 3 games against really good defensive teams (Nebraska, Michigan and Iowa) and Wisconsin’s #2 rated defense is significantly better than the collective level of those 3 stop units (0.8 yppl better). The Badgers have faced 4 worse than average offensive teams this season and they’ve allowed just 7 points (Eastern Michigan), 0 points (Illinois), 7 points (Iowa), and 3 points (Rutgers) in those games. Andrew Marty has been better than the other Wildcats’ quarterbacks in his limited action this season (81 pass plays at 5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB) but my math still projects just 7 points for Northwestern in this game, which is reasonable considering that the Badgers haven’t allowed more than 7 points to any worse than average offensive team.

Where the value is in this game is with the Wisconsin offense, which started performing better when RB Braelon Allen started getting the ball in week 6 after just 12 carries (all in garbage time) in the Badgers’ first 4 games. In the last 5 games Allen has 612 rushing yards on 81 runs (7.6 ypr) and now he’ll get the ball even more with the mediocre Chez Mellusi (173 runs at just 4.7 ypr) sidelined with a season-ending injury. Wisconsin’s rush attack was 0.7 yards per rushing play worse than average in the first 4 games, but the Badgers’ ground game has been 1.3 yprp better than average in 5 games with Allen in the mix and should be a bit better with him as the #1 back now.

Allen has been putting up those great numbers despite facing teams that would combine to allow just 4.5 yprp to an average team and today he’ll get to face a Northwestern defensive front that’s allowed an average of 6.0 yprp this season to teams that would combine to average a mediocre 5.0 yprp against an average defense. The Wildcats have faced 3 good rushing teams this season, in terms of compensated yards per rushing play, and those 3 teams (Michigan State, Nebraska, and Michigan) combined for an average of 359 rushing yards at 7.7 yprp against the Wildcats.

Teams with elite defenses that will be able to dominate with their ground game are dependable bets as big home favorites and the Wisconsin is a 2-Star Best Bet at -25 points or less (Strong Opinion at to -26).