Game Analysis

Note: Ohio State has a long list of players not playing today due to Covid protocols, including leading receiver Chris Olave, #2 tackler Baron Browning. Northwestern would now be a 1-Star Best Bet at +17.5 or more and a Strong Opinion at +17.

Best Bet – *Northwestern (+20.5)  23   Ohio State  34

Ohio State has the second-best offense in the nation behind Alabama but the Buckeyes have flaws that I don’t think are reflected in the line on this game against an underappreciated Northwestern team that has been 17.3 points better than an average FBS team and has the nation’s best compensated yards per play defense.

The Wildcats’ defense has only allowed 14.6 points per game and just 4.3 yards per play when excluding the 216 yards on 29 plays allowed by the backups in garbage time against Maryland and Illinois. Those impressive numbers have come against 7 teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team. Northwestern didn’t face an attack as good as the Ohio State offense that they’ll see in this game, but the Wildcats had their best defensive performance against the best offense that they played – holding Maryland to just 118 yards and 3.3 yppl before pulling their starters in a 43-3 win. Maryland averaged 7.1 yppl in their other 4 games (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) so Northwestern has proven that they can defend a very good offense.

Defending Ohio State is not an easy task, as the Buckeyes averaged 277 rushing yards per game and 264 pass yards per game while averaging 7.0 yppl or better in all 5 of their games while rating at 2.4 yppl better than average overall (7.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average FBS attack). Ohio State was equally good against the one very good defense they faced, rating at 2.4 yppl better than average against Penn State (7.0 yppl against a Nittany Lions defense that would allow 4.6 yppl at home to an average offense), but they haven’t faced a defense as good as Northwestern’s defense. Ohio State will still likely move the ball at a good clip (I project 6.7 yppl) but the Buckeyes’ defense would have to play a lot better than it has to cover such a big number.

Ohio State’s defense has been mediocre on a yards per play basis, allowing 5.8 yppl against teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. The mediocrity of the Buckeyes’ defense has been disguised by their unsustainable 1.8 recovered fumbles per game. Fumbles are almost completely random and the difference between Ohio State’s fumbles recovered and the national average equates to about 4 points per game – so Ohio State’s 23.2 points per game allowed should be around 27 points per game, which more closely reflects the level of their defense.

Northwestern has a below average offense, as the Wildcats are 0.4 yards per rushing play worse than average running the ball while Peyton Ramsey has been 0.6 yards per pass play worse than average throwing it. The rushing attack looks to be improved with Evan Hull (7.1 ypr on 69 career carries) and Cam Porter (5.4 ypr) taking over as the main ball-carriers in place of Drake Anderson and Isaiah Bowser, who have combined for just 3.5 ypr on 139 runs this season. Those two had just 6 runs last week while Hull and Porter ran the ball a combined 37 times as the Wildcats ran for 413 yards at 7.2 yprp in their best offensive games of the season last week against Illinois. I’m not going to overreact to one game, but I do believe the change in running backs is a positive move, as does the coaching staff (or else they wouldn’t have made the change).

I still project just 326 yards at 5.3 yards per play for Northwestern but the Wildcats should also be working with good field position. Ohio State’s special teams are dreadful this season and those hidden yards are not in the line on this game. The Buckeyes have a -2.4 net yards per punt differential, they haven’t found a good kick returner (just 13.3 yards per kickoff return) and they have a net kickoff yard-line differential of -4.1 yards. Ohio State also has had painfully bad place-kicking (3 of 6 on field-goals with misses from 20 and 23 yards and a long of just 34 yards) and this could be an instance where their special teams hurts their chances of covering a big number.

The line on this game is higher than it should be based on priors, which is how good each team was supposed to be entering the season. Northwestern has played much better than expected and their prior has kept their overall rating lower than it should be, and Ohio State isn’t as good as they were expected to be because their defense has been mediocre and their special teams have sucked.

A compensated points model would rate Ohio State as just 12.6 points better than Northwestern based on this season’s results only and that would be just 9.7 points after adjusting for Northwestern’s garbage time defensive stats, Ohio State’s randomly good +6 fumble margin, and the Buckeyes’ 3 defensive touchdowns (about 1.6 points per game after adjusting for how many points their offense would have scored with those 3 possessions had the defense not scored). My model still has some prior ratings included (the preseason ratings would have favored Ohio State by about 24 points) but there is no way to justify a line higher than 17 points in this game and I think it will be closer than that. Northwestern is a 1-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more (Strong Opinion at +17).