Game Analysis

Ohio State (-14.5)  40   Northwestern  22

My math model hasn’t picked Ohio State once all season (math model starts week 5) and my model has mostly been correct (OSU is 2-6 ATS since week 5), but this week the math likes the Buckeyes against a Northwestern team that wins with smoke and mirrors (and discipline). Northwestern has somehow made the Big 10 Championship game despite being out-gained 356 yards at 4.8 yards per play to 378 yards at 5.6 yppl.

The main reason outside of those numbers that Northwestern has found ways to win close games is their discipline. The Wildcats are the least penalized team in the nation and have a penalty yards advantage of 502 yards this season, which works out to a bit over 3 points per game. Ohio State, meanwhile, is -192 in penalty yards (about 1.3 points per game).

My math model projects Ohio State to out play Northwestern from the line of scrimmage to the tune of 545 yards at 7.0 yards per play to 372 yards at 5.1 yppl and the Buckeyes also have superior special teams. Those numbers would project Ohio State to win by 23 points if penalties are even and by 18.6 points even if past penalties for these teams are 100% indicative of future penalties, which is not generally the case.

I’m tempted to play Ohio State if the line gets back to -14 but Northwestern is 18-6-1 ATS in their last 25 games as an underdog, including 6-0-1 ATS this season and teams with a win percentage that is more than .167 worse than their opponent are 17-3 ATS as dogs of less than 21 points in Conference Championship games. I’ll still lean with the Buckeyes based on the math.