Game Analysis

IOWA (-13 ½)  30   Northwestern  13

Iowa is getting a lot of criticism for not playing up to expectations on the scoreboard the last couple of weeks with a loss to North Dakota State and an ugly 14-7 win at Rutgers last week. However, North Dakota State has won 5 consecutive FCS Championships and are about 8 ½ points better than an average FBS team and Iowa was better last week offensively than their 14 points scored indicates, as the Hawkeyes averaged 6.1 yards per play.

Iowa is playing at the same overall level as last season through the first 4 games from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.7 yards per play better than average offensively (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) and 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl). Overall the Hawkeyes are 1.0 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage and they were +1.1 yppl last season.

Northwestern, meanwhile, is much worse than last season. The Wildcats are struggling offensively to about the same degree as they struggled last season (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) but their defense isn’t nearly as good. The ‘Cats were a very good 1.1 yppl better than average defensively in 2015 but so far this season that unit is 0.2 yppl worse than average, allowing 5.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense. I actually rate Northwestern’s defense as 0.1 yppl better than average since my model adjusts for outliers like last week’s 7.8 yppl the Wildcats allowed to Nebraska, but Iowa’s offense has a solid advantage in that matchup.

Overall the math model gives Iowa a 55.3% chance of covering the spread but I’ll resist making this game a play based on the Hawkeyes poor history as a favorite of more than 7 points following a victory (10-28 ATS). Still, I’ll certainly lean with Iowa here.