Game Analysis

SOUTH FLORIDA (-15)  39   Northern Illinois  23

South Florida may be without top RB Marlon Mack, who suffered a concussion in last week’s 56-20 win over Towson (favored by 27 points in that game). USF is still going to run the ball a lot even if Mack doesn’t play, as quarterback Quinton Flowers is not a consistent passer. Flowers completed just 8 of 18 passes in an offense designed to use play action passes to take shots down the field but completing only 8 of 18 against Towson is concerning. I didn’t lower my rating on Flowers, who has a full season of data from 2015 that is more indicative of this ability, but he’ll need to play better this week since Northern Illinois has a good run defense that just held a good Wyoming rush attack to just 4.6 yards per rushing play last week.

South Florida’s defense is clearly better than average and should contain a sub-par NIU attack but my ratings only favor the Bulls by 13 points. On the plus side for USF, they do apply to a 121-61-3 ATS situation. Still, I’d prefer to pass this game.