Game Analysis

Lean – Northern Illinois (-3)  23   Fresno State  16

My math model would favor Fresno State by 1.5 points with everyone playing but the players that have left the Fresno State program are significantly more valuable than the players that have left Northern Illinois. Both starting quarterbacks will not play in this game but the NIU backup QB is experienced and has actually been a bit better than the departed starter but Fresno has to replace a two-year starter with two inexperienced quarterbacks. The Fresno defense has also been hurt more by the transfer portal and the line has not adjusted enough.

The Northern Illinois offense was 1.0 yppl worse than average and I don’t view the transfer of starting quarterback Ethan Hampton as a negative. Hampton averaged just 5.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB), even with an 83-yard swing pass to a running back included. That’s 2.0 yppp worse than average even with that big play that was all yards after catch. Backup QB Josh Holst, meanwhile, was just 1.8 yppp worse than average on his 82 pass plays and the running of the two quarterbacks is comparable.

Not having top WR Trayvon Rudolph should not be a factor, as Rudolph averaged just 5.5 yards on his 52 targets against FBS opponents while the next 4 wide receivers combined for 6.4 YPT. The two starting wide receivers on the depth chart combined for 7.4 YPT on 79 targets against FBS opponents so not having Rudolph could be a plus. However, not having Antonio Brown is an issue, as Brown had 159 yards on 9 targets out of the backfield in FBS games – one of those being that 83 swing pass. Brown hasn’t been as effective in the run game, as his 4.65 yards per run against FBS teams is considerably less than the combined 5.33 ypr of Williams and Johnson Jr., who will split carries in this game. They will miss Rudolph’s 12.8 ypr average on his 14 runs this season (9.3 ypr against FBS teams) but overall, the run game should be a bit better with Williams and Johnson Jr. even without those jet sweeps that Rudolph runs effectively.

Fresno State had a very good defensive season, as the Bulldogs yielded just 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense. However, that unit has been gutted with transfers, as the Bulldogs will be without two key defensive linemen (Lightfoot and Holmes), do-it-all LB Jackson (#5 tackler, team leading 4 sacks and 6 passed defended), and both starting cornerbacks (Lockridge and Hamilton), who combined for 7 interceptions and 27 total passes defended. I value those players at 0.8 yppl and 5.3 points. I still don’t expect a lot from an impotent NIU offense (just 360 yards at 4.8 yppl expected) but Fresno’s offense should be worse.

Fresno State struggled offensively this season, rating at 0.6 yppl worse than average with just 5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average offense. The Bulldogs can’t run the ball (1.1 yprp worse than average) and two-year starting quarterback Mikey Keene has left the program along with 4 of the top 5 wide receivers. The departed receivers accounted for 1292 receiving yards at 7.6 yards per target but #1 WR Mac Delena is on the depth chart and is apparently going to play in this game before heading to the NFL. Delena averaged 12.1 yards per target, which is significantly better than the rest of the receivers, but the experience is lacking at the two other receiver spots, and I value the departures in that position group as worth 0.7 yards per pass play. The absence of Keene, who is going to be replaced by a pair of quarterbacks with just 8 career pass attempts, is even more damaging.

The Northern Illinois defense allowed just 18.1 points and 287 total yards per game at 4.7 yppl in 11 games against FBS opponents (that would average 5.3 yppl), including holding Notre Dame to just 14 points and 4.8 yppl in their week 2 upset win in South Bend. That unit suffered a couple of injuries and will be missing two of the top four tacklers in S Banner and DL Gill-Howard, along with rush specialist Nevaeh Sanders (4.5 sacks). DE Thomas (2 sacks in 4 games before injury) and CB Knighton, who missed the last 4 games with an injury, are also not going to play. Those absences equate to 3.2 points based on my algorithms for assessing players that are out, but the Huskies still rate as an average defense on a national scale. I project Fresno with just 4.4 yards per pass play in this game and the coaching staff will likely call more run plays than usual. However, the Bulldogs are projected to average only 4.3 yprp, so moving the ball consistently is going to be challenging.

My math favors Northern Illinois by 6.5 points with 39.7 total points.