Game Analysis
BALL STATE (+3) 25 Northern Illinois 22
Northern Illinois was one of the favorites in the MAC before the season started and they’re as advertised defensively (4.7 yppl allowed) but the Huskies’ offense is dreadfully bad, averaging just 3.8 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). NIU is 0.8 yppl better than average defensively but overall they’ve been 6.9 points worse than an average FBS team from the line of scrimmage.
Ball State, meanwhile, is about the same overall from the line of scrimmage, as the Cardinals have been 7.1 points worse than average in my line of scrimmage ratings with an offense that is 0.5 yppl worse than average and a defense that is 0.6 yppl worse than average but +6.3 in play margin. Ball State only lost by 8 points at Notre Dame and their 10-38 loss at Indiana is misleading (the stats project a 10 point defeat). These teams are pretty evenly matched and I considered making Ball State a Best Bet even considering NIU’s 22-5 ATS mark in conference road games that includes last week’s win at Eastern Michigan.
Rush
-
Run Plays
38.4
40.6
-
Run Yards
143.2
132.8
-
YPRP
4.3
3.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
16.8
18.2
-
Pass Att
30.6
32.0
-
Comp %
54.9%
56.9%
-
Pass Yards
133.2
223.8
-
Sacks
2.6
3.2
-
Sack Yards
23.8
21.8
-
Sack %
7.8%
9.1%
-
Pass Plays
33.2
35.2
-
Net Pass Yards
109.4
202.0
-
YPPP
3.3
5.7
Total
-
Total Plays
71.6
75.8
-
Total Yards
276.4
356.6
-
YPPL
3.9
4.7
TO
-
Int
0.8
0.6
-
Int %
2.6%
1.9%
-
Fumbles
0.6
1.4
-
Turnovers
1.4
2.0
Rush
-
Run Plays
37.0
38.3
-
Run Yards
167.8
173.3
-
YPRP
4.9
4.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
24.0
24.0
-
Pass Att
43.8
35.5
-
Comp %
54.9%
67.6%
-
Pass Yards
263.5
266.3
-
Sacks
1.8
2.5
-
Sack Yards
12.0
15.3
-
Sack %
3.8%
6.6%
-
Pass Plays
45.5
38.0
-
Net Pass Yards
251.5
251.0
-
YPPP
5.5
6.6
Total
-
Total Plays
82.5
76.3
-
Total Yards
431.3
439.5
-
YPPL
5.2
5.8
TO
-
Int
1.0
1.0
-
Int %
2.3%
2.8%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/01/18 @ Iowa |
7-33 |
+10.5
L
|
31/46 |
149/216 |
4.8/4.7 |
1/0 |
15/13 |
26/25 |
67/139 |
1/1 |
5/1 |
2.2/5.3 |
216/355 |
3.5/4.9 |
09/08/18 Utah |
6-17 |
+11.0
T
|
39/31 |
176/118 |
4.5/3.8 |
1/2 |
18/20 |
33/31 |
74/239 |
1/0 |
3/7 |
2.1/6.3 |
250/357 |
3.3/5.2 |
09/15/18 Central Mich |
24-16 |
-14.0
L
|
46/43 |
227/185 |
4.9/4.3 |
0/1 |
11/18 |
18/33 |
96/134 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
5.1/3.7 |
323/319 |
5.0/4.0 |
09/22/18 @ Florida St. |
19-37 |
+10.0
L
|
16/54 |
37/160 |
2.3/3.0 |
0/3 |
20/23 |
41/31 |
189/335 |
0/1 |
4/2 |
4.2/10.2 |
226/495 |
3.7/5.7 |
09/29/18 @ Eastern Mich |
26-23 |
+3.5
W
|
60/29 |
246/94 |
4.1/3.2 |
1/1 |
20/17 |
35/40 |
121/163 |
2/0 |
0/3 |
3.5/3.8 |
367/257 |
3.9/3.6 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/30/18 Central Connecticut State |
42-6 |
-18.5
W
|
46/37 |
323/185 |
7.0/5.0 |
1/1 |
28/14 |
36/28 |
336/111 |
0/0 |
0/1 |
9.3/3.8 |
659/296 |
8.0/4.5 |
09/08/18 @ Notre Dame |
16-24 |
+34.5
W
|
45/35 |
176/146 |
3.9/4.2 |
0/0 |
23/17 |
50/31 |
174/272 |
2/3 |
1/4 |
3.4/7.8 |
350/418 |
3.6/6.0 |
09/15/18 @ Indiana |
10-38 |
+14.0
L
|
36/44 |
216/255 |
6.0/5.8 |
0/1 |
14/24 |
28/32 |
127/202 |
1/0 |
3/0 |
4.1/6.3 |
343/457 |
5.1/6.0 |
09/22/18 Western Kentucky |
20-28 |
-2.5
L
|
27/38 |
144/181 |
5.3/4.8 |
0/0 |
27/25 |
45/35 |
278/244 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
6.0/6.8 |
422/425 |
5.8/5.7 |
09/29/18 Kent State |
52-24 |
-7.5
W
|
40/36 |
183/172 |
4.6/4.8 |
1/2 |
32/30 |
52/44 |
427/286 |
1/1 |
2/5 |
7.9/5.8 |
610/458 |
6.5/5.4 |