Northern Ill @

Ball St.

Sat, Oct 6
ESPN+
12:00 PM Pacific
WatchESPN
Rotation: 321
Odds: Ball St. +3, Total: 53.5

Game Analysis

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BALL STATE (+3)  25   Northern Illinois  22

Northern Illinois was one of the favorites in the MAC before the season started and they’re as advertised defensively (4.7 yppl allowed) but the Huskies’ offense is dreadfully bad, averaging just 3.8 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). NIU is 0.8 yppl better than average defensively but overall they’ve been 6.9 points worse than an average FBS team from the line of scrimmage.

Ball State, meanwhile, is about the same overall from the line of scrimmage, as the Cardinals have been 7.1 points worse than average in my line of scrimmage ratings with an offense that is 0.5 yppl worse than average and a defense that is 0.6 yppl worse than average but +6.3 in play margin. Ball State only lost by 8 points at Notre Dame and their 10-38 loss at Indiana is misleading (the stats project a 10 point defeat). These teams are pretty evenly matched and I considered making Ball State a Best Bet even considering NIU’s 22-5 ATS mark in conference road games that includes last week’s win at Eastern Michigan.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Northern Ill
  • Ball St.
NILL
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 38.4 40.6
  • Run Yards 143.2 132.8
  • YPRP 4.3 3.8




Pass





  • Pass Comp 16.8 18.2
  • Pass Att 30.6 32.0
  • Comp % 54.9% 56.9%
  • Pass Yards 133.2 223.8
  • Sacks 2.6 3.2
  • Sack Yards 23.8 21.8
  • Sack % 7.8% 9.1%
  • Pass Plays 33.2 35.2
  • Net Pass Yards 109.4 202.0
  • YPPP 3.3 5.7

Total

  • Total Plays 71.6 75.8
  • Total Yards 276.4 356.6
  • YPPL 3.9 4.7

TO


  • Int 0.8 0.6
  • Int % 2.6% 1.9%
  • Fumbles 0.6 1.4
  • Turnovers 1.4 2.0
 
  • Points 16.4 25.2
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