Game Analysis

Northern Illinois (-6)  19   AKRON  16

Northern Illinois is 23-5 ATS in conference road games in recent years but my math only favors the Huskies by 1.5 points in what should be an ugly, low-scoring game. NIU has a very good defense that has yielded just 4.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive unit and Akron is offensively challenged (0.9 yppl worse than average). That math model projects just 283 yards at 4.1 yppl for the Zips in this game.

Northern Illinois, however, is a horrible offensive team, rating at 1.4 yppl worse than average on that side of the ball (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and Akron has a solid defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team). Them math projects only 296 yards at 4.1 yppl for the Huskies’ offense and both teams could struggle even more than expected if the winds gust into the 20 mph range as expected (average winds project at 10 mph).

Northern Illinois is the better team, although not by much, and the Huskies should not be favored by more than a field-goal on the road in this game even with their good track record in MAC road games. I lean with Akron plus the points.