Game Analysis

North Texas (-2) at TULANE

North Texas has the #1 offense in the nation in terms of points and total yards per game and the Eagles rank 9th in my compensated yards per play ratings. Tulane’s defense rates 0.1 yards per play worse than average on a national scale, but that’s 0.3 yppl better than the average defense the Eagles faced this season. North Texas faced 4 favorite or better defensive teams this season (Western Michigan, Washington State, Army, and South Florida) and they averaged 43.3 points in those games.

Tulane’s offense is 0.4 yards per play better than average and they should move the ball at a good rate against a North Texas defense that’s 0.4 yppl worse than average.

North Texas is the better team, but my math model favors the Eagles by just 1.3 points (and 67.8 total points). However, the North Texas offense, led by a freshman quarterback, has been even better in recent weeks than their season rating, as the Eagles have averaged 9.9 yppl in their last 3 games. My gut is telling me that North Texas wins this game by more than 3 points but the math, based on the entire season, leans slightly with Tulane.

I suggest passing on this game.