Game Analysis

Lean – San Diego State (+6.5)  26   North Texas  28

My math model would have favored North Texas by just 1 point with everyone playing but the Aztecs will be without their starting quarterback and their best wide receiver. However, I think there’s been an overreaction to those losses and San Diego State applies to a 38-4 ATS subset of an 84-30 ATS bowl situation that plays on the significantly better defensive teams as an underdog.

North Texas has one of the best offensive units in the nation and the Eagles rate at 1.2 yards per play better than an average FBS attack (adjusted for outliers like the 11.4 yppl against Rice). Quarterback Drew Mestemaker is rumored to be entering the transfer portal but he will play in this game along with the rest of the offense.

San Diego State’s defense is very good, as the Aztecs allowed just 12.6 points per game and 4.3 yppl this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense (adjusted for facing backup quarterbacks in multiple games). The math projects 401 yards at 6.2 yppl for North Texas in this game.

San Diego State’s offense was 0.3 yppl worse than average in the regular season and starting quarterback Jayden Denegal will miss this game after having surgery following the final regular season game. Denegal’s absence will likely lead to veteran Bert Emanuel Jr. leading the attack. Emanuel is more of a runner (6.8 yards per on 154 career runs) than a passer (just 53.3% completions on 60 career passes and 2.0 yards per pass play worse than average) and he won’t have leading receiver Jordan Napier (9.1 yards per target on 69 targets). I expect the Aztecs, who normally run the ball 63.5% of the time, to run the ball about 75% of the time in this game with Emanuel at quarterback. That game plan should work well against a North Texas defense that gave up 231 run yards per game at 5.4 yprp (to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average defense) while being a bit better than average in pass defense.

The loss of Napier is only 0.6 points with just 16 pass plays expected in this game and Emanuel is just a 1.1 points downgrade given how good of a runner he is – even with me having him averaging just 3.7 yards per pass play in this game. I’m projecting San Diego State to run for over 300 yards at 6.1 yards per rushing play in this game with Emanuel Jr. at quarterback. Overall I project 365 yards at 5.5 yppl for the Aztecs and I think they can keep this game close given that their strong defense appears to be intact for this game. However, losing their elite defensive coordinator Rob Aurich (he left for Nebraska) could result in San Diego State’s defense not being as good with a new play-caller. I’ll dock the Aztecs a point on defense for the coaching change.

The math favors North Texas by 3 points (and 54.2 total points) and the situation strongly favors the defensively superior Aztecs in this game. Also, teams that were extremely high scoring teams in the regular season tend to lose some of their rhythm for the bowl game, as teams that averaged more than 40 points per game in the regular season are just 94-119-2 ATS in their bowl games, including 59-89-1 ATS against teams with a defense that have allowed 22 points or fewer per game (as is the case here).

San Diego State is a Lean at +6 or more.