Game Analysis

Note: The line closed at -2, but I added a lean on Miami-Ohio when the line went down to -1 on Thursday morning – before going back up a bit.

Lean – Miami-Ohio (-1)  30   North Texas  26

North Texas won their final 5 games of the season after a 1-6 start and this game was added to the bowl schedule to accommodate all bowl eligible teams. The Mean Green are certainly better now than their overall season numbers, as the pass game as the offense has been better with Austin Aune at quarterback while the defensive improved starting in week 9 (the beginning of their win streak) when safety DeShawn Gaddie was moved to cornerback, where he thrived (5 passes defended in 5 games at CB and just 1 PD in 7 starts at safety).

The North Texas defense was 0.6 yards per play worse than average for the season but I rate that unit at 0.3 yppl worse than average with their current lineup. Miami’s offense is also better than their season rating of +0.2 yppl (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl), as star quarterback Brett Gabbert was banged up the first part of the season and backup A.J. Mayer was 0.5 yards per pass play worse than average. Gabbert, meanwhile, averaged 8.5 yppp against teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average quarterback. The Redhawks’ rush attack is not good (0.7 yprp worse than average) and that could be an issue if Gabbert’s passing is affected by the high winds (17 mph with gusts close to 30 mph). High winds usually mean more running, which is certainly not going to help Miami. I project 421 yards at 6.4 yppl for Miami-Ohio, even with the high winds factored in.

The North Texas offense is ideally suited for the wind, as the Mean Green ranked in the top 10 in rushing yards per game this season and are projected to gain a decent 5.2 yards per rushing play against a sub-par Miami run defense. Austin Aune was an upgrade at quarterback but he’s still 0.9 yppp worse than average (6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 7.0 yppp) and he’s projected to average only 6.2 yppp in this game. I project North Texas’ ball-control offense to gain 431 yards at 5.3 yppl.

Overall, the math favors Miami-Ohio by 2.5 points with North Texas getting half a home field advantage for playing 30 minutes from home in Frisco, Texas – a place that isn’t likely to draw many Miami fans. Running teams tend to outperform expectations in bowl games but the Mean Green also apply to a 1-21-1 ATS subset of a 29-83-1 ATS bowl situation that plays against ‘hot’ teams. The math leans over a bit, with 58 total points projected even with the winds, but I don’t like the idea of playing over in wind games and North Texas may run the ball even more than projected.