Game Analysis
North Carolina (+3) 35 WAKE FOREST 34
North Carolina has opened the second Mack Brown era with upset wins over South Carolina and Miami-Florida thanks to the arm of freshman quarterback Sam Howell, who has averaged 8.6 yards per pass play against a couple of good defensive teams. Howell is unlikely to continue to average 16.7 yards per completion but he still looks like a significant upgrade at the most important position on the field. Wake Forest has also found a quarterback in Jamie Newman, who ignited the offense late last season (7.0 yards per pass play in his 4 starts) and has been even better so far this year with 74% completions and 9.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average quarterback).
Both offenses are looking good but North Carolina has been much better defensively so far, allowing 5.6 yards per play to two good teams while Wake has yielded 5.9 yppl to Utah State (better than average) and Rice (horrible), who combine to rate worse than average offensively. I’ll side with the Tarheels to make it three straight upsets to open the season.
- North Carolina
- Wake Forest
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.0
40.1
-
Run Yards
191.5
218.3
-
YPRP
5.6
5.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.9
19.3
-
Pass Att
36.1
33.1
-
Comp %
60.7%
58.2%
-
Pass Yards
273.3
251.8
-
Sacks
1.5
2.8
-
Sack Yards
8.7
16.8
-
Sack %
3.9%
7.8%
-
Pass Plays
37.5
35.9
-
Net Pass Yards
264.6
235.1
-
YPPP
7.0
6.5
Total
-
Total Plays
73.5
76.1
-
Total Yards
464.8
470.1
-
YPPL
6.3
6.2
TO
-
Int
0.8
0.9
-
Int %
2.3%
2.7%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.9
-
Turnovers
1.5
1.8
Rush
-
Run Plays
42.4
37.2
-
Run Yards
193.1
185.6
-
YPRP
5.0
5.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.2
24.5
-
Pass Att
33.5
38.3
-
Comp %
57.4%
64.0%
-
Pass Yards
242.4
262.5
-
Sacks
3.0
2.2
-
Sack Yards
17.0
12.0
-
Sack %
8.1%
5.3%
-
Pass Plays
36.4
40.4
-
Net Pass Yards
225.4
250.5
-
YPPP
6.2
6.2
Total
-
Total Plays
78.8
77.6
-
Total Yards
435.4
448.1
-
YPPL
5.5
5.8
TO
-
Int
0.7
0.5
-
Int %
2.0%
1.2%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.7
-
Turnovers
1.1
1.2
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 10/13/18 Virginia Tech |
19-22 |
+6.5
W
|
34/37 |
225/176 |
6.6/4.8 |
2/0 |
21/20 |
34/36 |
305/199 |
0/2 |
3/4 |
8.2/5.0 |
530/375 |
7.5/4.9 |
| 10/20/18 @ Syracuse |
37-40 |
+10.5
W
|
40/29 |
185/159 |
4.6/5.5 |
1/1 |
34/28 |
54/51 |
313/384 |
1/1 |
1/4 |
5.7/7.0 |
498/543 |
5.2/6.5 |
| 10/27/18 @ Virginia |
21-31 |
+9.0
L
|
21/40 |
71/231 |
3.4/5.8 |
1/0 |
22/18 |
38/27 |
265/198 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
6.8/6.6 |
336/429 |
5.6/6.1 |
| 11/03/18 Georgia Tech |
28-38 |
+6.0
L
|
36/74 |
166/464 |
4.6/6.3 |
0/3 |
18/2 |
31/2 |
208/104 |
3/0 |
0/0 |
6.7/52.0 |
374/568 |
5.6/7.5 |
| 11/10/18 @ Duke |
35-42 |
+10.0
W
|
37/32 |
315/289 |
8.5/9.0 |
0/2 |
27/31 |
42/54 |
221/343 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
5.3/6.0 |
536/632 |
6.8/7.1 |
| 11/17/18 Western Carolina |
49-26 |
0.0
W
|
50/30 |
296/174 |
5.9/5.8 |
1/2 |
20/19 |
28/35 |
342/269 |
2/0 |
0/4 |
12.2/6.9 |
638/443 |
8.2/6.4 |
| 11/24/18 No Carolina St. |
28-34 |
+7.0
W
|
34/46 |
160/216 |
4.7/4.7 |
0/0 |
19/16 |
40/29 |
269/191 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
6.6/6.2 |
429/407 |
5.7/5.3 |
| 08/31/19 South Carolina |
24-20 |
+11.0
W
|
46/27 |
267/148 |
5.8/5.5 |
1/0 |
15/16 |
24/30 |
221/123 |
0/2 |
3/3 |
8.2/3.7 |
488/271 |
6.7/4.5 |
| 09/07/19 Miami Fla |
28-25 |
+5.0
W
|
31/33 |
131/201 |
4.2/6.1 |
0/0 |
17/30 |
25/39 |
268/289 |
0/0 |
4/4 |
9.2/6.7 |
399/490 |
6.7/6.4 |
| 09/13/19 @ Wake Forest |
18-24 |
+3.0
L
|
31/46 |
170/229 |
5.5/5.0 |
1/0 |
18/14 |
30/26 |
163/208 |
0/1 |
6/1 |
4.5/7.7 |
333/437 |
5.0/6.0 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 10/06/18 Clemson |
3-63 |
+20.0
L
|
48/38 |
181/469 |
3.8/12.3 |
0/1 |
9/24 |
27/30 |
65/198 |
1/0 |
3/2 |
2.2/6.2 |
246/667 |
3.2/9.5 |
| 10/20/18 @ Florida St. |
17-38 |
+10.0
L
|
45/29 |
139/132 |
3.1/4.6 |
0/1 |
25/29 |
54/41 |
204/345 |
1/0 |
5/0 |
3.5/8.4 |
343/477 |
3.3/6.8 |
| 10/27/18 @ Louisville |
56-35 |
+3.0
W
|
45/33 |
377/198 |
8.4/6.0 |
0/1 |
16/30 |
24/54 |
218/347 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
8.7/6.2 |
595/545 |
8.5/6.1 |
| 11/03/18 Syracuse |
24-41 |
+5.0
L
|
38/54 |
197/282 |
5.2/5.2 |
2/0 |
21/23 |
37/35 |
240/143 |
1/0 |
6/3 |
5.6/3.8 |
437/425 |
5.4/4.6 |
| 11/08/18 @ No Carolina St. |
27-23 |
+19.0
W
|
33/26 |
150/61 |
4.5/2.3 |
1/0 |
22/35 |
33/53 |
285/368 |
0/1 |
5/1 |
7.5/6.8 |
435/429 |
6.1/5.4 |
| 11/17/18 Pittsburgh |
13-34 |
+6.0
L
|
25/45 |
91/166 |
3.6/3.7 |
0/0 |
15/23 |
30/30 |
195/304 |
2/0 |
2/2 |
6.1/9.5 |
286/470 |
5.0/6.1 |
| 11/24/18 @ Duke |
59-7 |
+11.0
W
|
55/31 |
349/122 |
6.3/3.9 |
0/3 |
18/17 |
23/36 |
168/133 |
0/1 |
2/2 |
6.7/3.5 |
517/255 |
6.5/3.7 |
| 12/22/18 Memphis |
37-34 |
+3.5
W
|
47/50 |
216/225 |
4.6/4.5 |
0/0 |
22/15 |
40/28 |
315/153 |
1/1 |
2/3 |
7.5/4.9 |
531/378 |
6.0/4.7 |
| 08/30/19 Utah St. |
38-35 |
-4.5
L
|
54/30 |
196/182 |
3.6/6.1 |
1/0 |
34/33 |
47/48 |
382/414 |
0/3 |
3/1 |
7.6/8.4 |
578/596 |
5.6/7.5 |
| 09/06/19 @ Rice |
41-21 |
-19.0
W
|
34/33 |
166/92 |
4.9/2.8 |
0/1 |
21/22 |
27/35 |
312/201 |
0/0 |
0/4 |
11.6/5.2 |
478/293 |
7.8/4.1 |
| 09/13/19 North Carolina |
24-18 |
-3.0
W
|
46/31 |
229/170 |
5.0/5.5 |
0/1 |
14/18 |
26/30 |
208/163 |
1/0 |
1/6 |
7.7/4.5 |
437/333 |
6.0/5.0 |
North Carolina
@ 
Wake Forest