Game Analysis
North Carolina (-11) 43 VIRGINIA 32
My math model favors North Carolina by 14 points in this game but the Tarheels apply to a negative 14-67-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation based on last week’s upset win at Miami. I’ll pass on the side but I do think the total is low due to the stats from their bad weather game against Virginia Tech being incorporated into the line. I deleted those stats from my model, which is perhaps why my model projects a higher scoring game.
Rush
-
Run Plays
28.8
42.2
-
Run Yards
141.0
227.0
-
YPRP
5.3
5.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
28.5
17.0
-
Pass Att
37.8
28.7
-
Comp %
75.3%
59.3%
-
Pass Yards
340.0
222.3
-
Sacks
1.8
2.2
-
Sack Yards
11.3
12.0
-
Sack %
4.6%
7.0%
-
Pass Plays
39.7
30.8
-
Net Pass Yards
328.7
210.3
-
YPPP
8.3
6.8
Total
-
Total Plays
68.5
73.0
-
Total Yards
481.0
449.3
-
YPPL
7.0
6.2
TO
-
Int
0.0
0.0
-
Int %
0.0%
0.0%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.7
-
Turnovers
0.7
0.7
Rush
-
Run Plays
26.3
36.8
-
Run Yards
115.2
172.5
-
YPRP
5.3
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
23.3
21.2
-
Pass Att
40.7
35.0
-
Comp %
57.4%
60.5%
-
Pass Yards
289.2
280.8
-
Sacks
2.8
2.0
-
Sack Yards
25.2
11.2
-
Sack %
6.5%
5.4%
-
Pass Plays
43.5
37.0
-
Net Pass Yards
264.0
269.7
-
YPPP
6.1
7.3
Total
-
Total Plays
69.8
73.8
-
Total Yards
404.3
453.3
-
YPPL
5.8
6.1
TO
-
Int
1.2
1.2
-
Int %
2.9%
3.3%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.3
-
Turnovers
1.7
1.5
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/16 @ Georgia |
24-33 |
+3.0
L
|
18/44 |
160/314 |
8.9/7.1 |
0/1 |
24/13 |
40/20 |
155/167 |
0/0 |
1/4 |
3.8/7.0 |
315/481 |
5.3/7.1 |
| 09/10/16 @ Illinois |
48-23 |
-7.5
W
|
35/33 |
204/195 |
5.8/5.9 |
1/1 |
19/17 |
24/35 |
258/117 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
9.9/3.2 |
462/312 |
7.6/4.5 |
| 09/17/16 James Madison |
56-28 |
0.0
W
|
32/47 |
173/222 |
5.4/4.7 |
1/0 |
29/22 |
33/36 |
462/273 |
0/0 |
0/3 |
14.0/7.0 |
635/495 |
9.8/5.8 |
| 09/24/16 Pittsburgh |
37-36 |
-7.0
L
|
18/54 |
54/306 |
3.0/5.7 |
1/1 |
35/14 |
46/18 |
417/140 |
0/0 |
4/0 |
8.3/7.8 |
471/446 |
6.9/6.2 |
| 10/01/16 @ Florida St. |
37-35 |
+11.0
W
|
29/41 |
147/241 |
5.1/5.9 |
1/0 |
31/20 |
38/32 |
393/354 |
0/0 |
3/2 |
9.6/10.4 |
540/595 |
7.7/7.9 |
| 10/08/16 Virginia Tech |
3-34 |
-1.5
L
|
26/57 |
100/233 |
3.8/4.1 |
2/2 |
13/7 |
33/17 |
46/56 |
2/0 |
2/2 |
1.3/2.9 |
146/289 |
2.4/3.8 |
| 10/15/16 @ Miami Fla |
20-13 |
+7.0
W
|
41/34 |
176/156 |
4.3/4.6 |
0/1 |
33/16 |
46/31 |
287/211 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
6.1/6.4 |
463/367 |
5.3/5.5 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/16 Richmond |
20-37 |
0.0
L
|
18/36 |
63/208 |
3.5/5.8 |
3/0 |
26/24 |
34/35 |
239/322 |
1/0 |
3/2 |
6.5/8.7 |
302/530 |
5.5/7.3 |
| 09/10/16 @ Oregon |
26-44 |
+23.5
W
|
34/45 |
244/301 |
7.2/6.7 |
0/0 |
21/21 |
40/31 |
144/331 |
2/0 |
6/0 |
3.1/10.7 |
388/632 |
4.9/8.3 |
| 09/17/16 @ Connecticut |
10-13 |
+4.0
W
|
29/36 |
152/146 |
5.2/4.1 |
0/1 |
23/13 |
42/24 |
229/134 |
1/1 |
1/4 |
5.3/4.8 |
381/280 |
5.3/4.4 |
| 09/24/16 Central Mich |
49-35 |
+3.5
W
|
24/30 |
152/114 |
6.3/3.8 |
0/0 |
27/25 |
43/45 |
421/382 |
1/1 |
0/3 |
9.8/8.0 |
573/496 |
8.6/6.4 |
| 10/01/16 @ Duke |
34-20 |
+4.0
W
|
31/29 |
107/116 |
3.5/4.0 |
0/1 |
23/33 |
41/54 |
311/314 |
1/5 |
3/2 |
7.1/5.6 |
418/430 |
5.6/5.1 |
| 10/15/16 Pittsburgh |
31-45 |
+4.0
L
|
22/45 |
124/217 |
5.6/4.8 |
0/0 |
20/11 |
44/21 |
240/135 |
1/0 |
4/1 |
5.0/6.1 |
364/352 |
5.2/5.3 |
Virginia