Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (46.5) – SYRACUSE (-2)  19   North Carolina  19

To go over 46.5 points at least one of these teams would need to score 24 points or more. I don’t see either team scoring 24 points.

North Carolina has averaged 14.5 points and just 4.5 yppl (excluding garbage time vs backup defenders) in 6 games against FBS opponents, who collectively rate as average defensively (they’d allow 5.7 yppl to an average team). The most points that the Tarheels have scored against and FBS foes is the 20 points they put up against a horrible Charlotte defense that rates at 1.3 yppl worse than average.

Syracuse has given up 32.3 points per game and 6.4 yppl against FBS opponents, but the Orange have also faced teams that would combine to average 33.4 points and 6.5 yppl against an average FBS defense, so they are actually a solid defensive unit that rates the same as the schedule of FBS teams that North Carolina has averaged just 14.5 points against. It’s a stretch to think that North Carolina will get to 24 points against an average defensive team on the road (even in a dome) given that they couldn’t even top 20 points against Charlotte.

I don’t see the Syracuse offense getting past 20 points either, as that unit has gone from decent to horrible since quarterback Steve Angeli got injured. Angeli was 0.2 yards per pass play better than average, but Rickie Collins has been 1.2 yppp worse than average in his 4 starts and the Orange rush attack is not helping him out (just 4.1 yprp against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team). Syracuse has averaged only 12.5 points in Collins’ 4 starts while facing teams that rate at 0.3 yppl better than average defensively.

North Carolina’s defense struggled to stop the TCU rush attack in their opening game, giving up 264 yards at 7.5 yards per rushing play and 548 total yards and 48 points to the Horned Frogs. Bill Belichick’s offense is horrible but he fixed that defense. Since that game, the Tarheels have yielded just 3.6 yards per rushing play in 5 games against FBS opponents while also limiting those teams to just 22.6 points per game and 4.7 yppl, which is 0.8 yppl better than the 5.5 yppl that those teams would average against an average FBS defense. Only good offensive teams TCU, UCF, and Clemson (with Klubnik at QB) have scored more than 21 points against the Tarheels and they just held a good Virginia attack to 10 points in regulation last week.

North Carolina is better defensively than all but one of the teams that Syracuse has averaged 12.5 points against with Collins behind center, so it’s hard to imagine the Orange getting to 20 points.

North Carolina’s struggling offense and good defense since their opening game have led to 5 unders in 6 games since that TCU game to open the season (the one over went over by just 1.5 points) and Syracuse has gone under the total in 3 of 4 games with Collins at quarterback, including both games in the Dome. My math projects just 38.5 total points even with the perfect dome conditions.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 45 points or more.