Game Analysis

Georgia (-3)  32   North Carolina  30

A new era starts for the University of Georgia football program with Kirby Smart replacing long tenured coach Mark Richt. However, it looks like the Jacob Easton era may have to wait at least another week, as the nation’s #1 quarterback recruit failed to beat out incumbent Greyson Lambert, who was tabbed as the starter for this game. I don’t know if that’s an indictment on Eason or rather that Lambert is better than he’s been throughout his career at Virginia and last season with the Bulldogs. Lambert has the occasional great game but he was really inconsistent last season. That wasn’t as much of a problem when Nick Chubb was healthy and averaging 8 yards a run but Lambert could not pick up the offense on his shoulders after Chubb was injured and the Bulldogs’ offense struggled.

I’ll assume that Lambert has improved some and he actually won’t need to improve much with Chubb back with a clean bill of health. Chubb averaged 7.1 ypr while running for 1547 yards in 2014 and he ran for an 745 yards in the first 5 games at an incredible 8.1 ypr – including 189 yards at 9.9 ypr against a good Vanderbilt defense and 146 yards at 7.3 ypr against Alabama. Chubb was hurt on his first carry against Tennessee in week 6 and backup RB Sony Michel was not nearly as good. The Georgia rushing attack was 1.8 yards per rushing play better than average in 2014 with a healthy Chubb and the Bulldogs rated at +2.0 yprp in the first 5 games last season before the injury. From week 6 on Georgia’s rushing rating was just 0.1 yprp better than average (4.8 yprp against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) and the Bulldogs averaged only 18.8 points in those 8 games without Chubb. I don’t anticipate Georgia being as good running the ball as they were in 2014 or in the first 5 games last season but the Bulldogs should have a very good rushing attack and it’s possible they’ll be as good as they were prior to Chubb’s injury.

North Carolina certainly is not going to be as good as they were last season, as the Tarheels will be without dynamic dual threat quarterback Marquis Williams, who not only averaged 8.0 yards per pass play (against FBS teams) but also ran for over 1000 yards (1061 yards at 7.5 yards per run if you take the sack yardage out, which I do). New quarterback Mitch Trubisky certainly looks like he can keep the pass attack at a high level, as he’s completed 66% of his career passes and averaged 11.4 yards per pass play in spot duty last season (completed 40 of 47 passes!). However, it’s unlikely he’ll add to the rushing attack at the level that Williams did last season – although he may not need to with RB Elijah Wood back for his junior season after racking up 1463 yards at 6.7 ypr in 2015. The Carolina offense will still be among the nation’s best, but probably not quite as good as last season.

The Georgia defense should be pretty solid again this season with defensively minded head coach Kirby Smart controlling the team but UNC is projected by my ratings to tally 418 yards at 6.3 yards per play. Georgia, meanwhile, is projected at 452 yards at 6.3 yppl, as the Bulldogs should run more plays with their ball control offense. Special teams figures to be in favor of the Tarheels, as has been the case in most of their games in recent years, and overall the ratings favor Georgia by just 1 ½ points with a total of 62 ½ points. I don’t see much value in the side but my ratings like the over.