Game Analysis
Lean – North Carolina (-2.5) 27 FLORIDA STATE 20
Florida State’s defense gave a really good effort last week against rival Miami-Florida, but the Seminoles are now 1-7 with no hope of a bowl game and this feels like a flat spot. If the defense doesn’t maintain their intensity then the Tarheels’ offense (0.8 yards per play better than average with Criswell at quarterback) could top 30 points.
I certainly don’t expect an impotent Florida State offense (14.9 points per game) to carry the load against a decent North Carolina defense that has proven that they can control bad offensive teams.
North Carolina is a Lean at -3 or less.
- North Carolina
- Florida St.
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.5
32.4
-
Run Yards
205.0
160.9
-
YPRP
5.6
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.6
17.0
-
Pass Att
34.3
30.9
-
Comp %
57.3%
55.1%
-
Pass Yards
251.1
232.9
-
Sacks
1.8
3.1
-
Sack Yards
10.1
19.4
-
Sack %
4.9%
9.2%
-
Pass Plays
36.0
34.0
-
Net Pass Yards
241.0
213.5
-
YPPP
6.7
6.3
Total
-
Total Plays
72.5
66.4
-
Total Yards
446.0
374.4
-
YPPL
6.2
5.6
TO
-
Int
0.6
0.5
-
Int %
1.8%
1.6%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.0
Rush
-
Run Plays
24.9
36.3
-
Run Yards
100.5
201.1
-
YPRP
4.0
5.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
16.8
17.3
-
Pass Att
32.6
27.9
-
Comp %
51.3%
61.9%
-
Pass Yards
197.1
200.1
-
Sacks
2.6
2.9
-
Sack Yards
15.3
14.8
-
Sack %
7.5%
9.4%
-
Pass Plays
35.3
30.8
-
Net Pass Yards
181.9
185.4
-
YPPP
5.2
6.0
Total
-
Total Plays
60.1
67.0
-
Total Yards
282.4
386.5
-
YPPL
4.7
5.8
TO
-
Int
1.1
0.3
-
Int %
3.5%
0.9%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.1
-
Turnovers
1.6
0.4
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/29/24 @ Minnesota |
19-17 |
-2.0
T
|
39/28 |
161/101 |
4.1/3.6 |
0/1 |
14/13 |
23/21 |
95/116 |
1/0 |
2/5 |
3.8/4.5 |
256/217 |
4.0/4.0 |
| 09/07/24 Charlotte |
38-20 |
-22.0
L
|
42/22 |
293/68 |
7.0/3.1 |
0/0 |
17/15 |
26/31 |
200/228 |
1/0 |
3/3 |
6.9/6.7 |
493/296 |
6.9/5.3 |
| 09/14/24 NC Central |
45-10 |
0.0
W
|
41/37 |
330/75 |
8.0/2.0 |
0/1 |
16/10 |
29/21 |
183/102 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
6.3/4.4 |
513/177 |
7.3/3.0 |
| 09/21/24 James Madison |
50-70 |
-10.5
L
|
27/36 |
176/235 |
6.5/6.5 |
3/1 |
28/22 |
48/34 |
448/370 |
2/0 |
4/2 |
8.6/10.3 |
624/605 |
7.9/8.4 |
| 09/28/24 @ Duke |
20-21 |
+2.5
W
|
38/37 |
161/209 |
4.2/5.6 |
0/1 |
21/15 |
39/34 |
246/187 |
1/0 |
2/3 |
6.0/5.1 |
407/396 |
5.2/5.4 |
| 10/05/24 Pittsburgh |
24-34 |
+2.5
L
|
34/33 |
159/143 |
4.7/4.3 |
0/0 |
24/25 |
45/42 |
257/357 |
0/1 |
1/0 |
5.6/8.5 |
416/500 |
5.2/6.7 |
| 10/12/24 Georgia Tech |
34-41 |
+4.0
L
|
32/48 |
222/371 |
6.9/7.7 |
2/0 |
18/12 |
34/23 |
206/134 |
0/0 |
2/0 |
5.7/5.8 |
428/505 |
6.3/7.1 |
| 10/26/24 @ Virginia |
41-14 |
+3.5
W
|
39/18 |
138/85 |
3.5/4.7 |
0/0 |
19/24 |
30/41 |
293/214 |
0/2 |
0/10 |
9.8/4.2 |
431/299 |
6.2/4.3 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/24/24 @ Georgia Tech |
21-24 |
-10.5
L
|
30/36 |
102/209 |
3.4/5.8 |
0/0 |
19/11 |
27/16 |
189/146 |
0/0 |
1/0 |
6.8/9.1 |
291/355 |
5.0/6.8 |
| 09/02/24 Boston College |
13-28 |
-15.5
L
|
13/46 |
49/276 |
3.8/6.0 |
0/0 |
21/10 |
42/16 |
244/102 |
1/0 |
3/3 |
5.4/5.4 |
293/378 |
5.1/5.8 |
| 09/14/24 Memphis |
12-20 |
-5.5
L
|
20/28 |
79/88 |
4.0/3.1 |
2/0 |
16/25 |
30/39 |
168/249 |
1/1 |
4/4 |
4.9/5.8 |
247/337 |
4.6/4.7 |
| 09/21/24 California |
14-9 |
-2.5
W
|
34/30 |
138/147 |
4.1/4.9 |
0/0 |
16/22 |
27/36 |
171/263 |
1/1 |
3/7 |
5.7/6.1 |
309/410 |
4.8/5.6 |
| 09/28/24 @ SMU |
16-42 |
+6.0
L
|
24/43 |
87/246 |
3.6/5.7 |
0/1 |
14/16 |
34/23 |
235/234 |
3/0 |
1/4 |
6.7/8.7 |
322/480 |
5.5/6.9 |
| 10/05/24 Clemson |
13-29 |
+15.0
L
|
20/39 |
54/272 |
2.7/7.0 |
0/0 |
23/19 |
41/33 |
213/228 |
1/0 |
2/1 |
5.0/6.7 |
267/500 |
4.2/6.8 |
| 10/18/24 @ Duke |
16-23 |
+3.0
L
|
33/32 |
149/117 |
4.5/3.7 |
2/0 |
14/12 |
28/24 |
133/70 |
2/0 |
4/0 |
4.2/2.9 |
282/187 |
4.3/3.3 |
| 10/26/24 @ Miami Fla |
14-36 |
+21.0
L
|
25/36 |
146/254 |
5.8/7.1 |
0/0 |
11/23 |
32/36 |
102/191 |
0/0 |
3/4 |
2.9/4.8 |
248/445 |
4.1/5.9 |
North Carolina
@ 
Florida St.