Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – VIRGINIA TECH (-2.5)  27   North Carolina State  19

Virginia Tech improved offensively in week 3 with a quarterback switch while NC State has declined offensively with quarterback MJ Morris being shelved to maintain his redshirt season after starting 4 games. Brennan Armstrong is back behind center after being benched for Morris earlier in the season. Armstrong was once a star at Virginia but he was terrible with the Cavaliers last season and hasn’t been any better so far this year with the Wolfpack, as he’s averaged only 4.8 yards per pass play against FBS opponents (excluding garbage time vs backups) that would combine to allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Armstrong adds a running element that Morris didn’t have but overall he’s worse and the NC State attack has been 0.5 yppl worse than average this season (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team).

Virginia Tech’s defense will allow some running yards but the Hokies are very good against the pass (1.1 yppp better than average) and 0.2 yppl better than average overall defensively. I project 5.6 yards per rushing play for NC State in this game, but only 4.2 yppp and 293 total yards at 5.0 yppl.

Virginia Tech’s offense improved when Kyron Drones took over at quarterback in week 3. Drones is just average as a passer, as was week 1 starter Grant Wells, but he’s run for 693 yards in 8 starts at 6.6 yards per run (not including sacks) and the Hokies have been 0.4 yppl better than average offensively with Drones behind center. NC State’s defense has a bit of an edge, as the Wolfpack are 0.6 yppl better than average on the stop side of the ball, but the Hokies are projected to gain 376 yards at 5.7 yppl on their home field.

Both teams should be able to run the ball well (5.6 yprp projected for NC State and 5.7 yprp projected for VA Tech) but Drones is projected to average 1.5 yppp more than Armstrong and the Hokies should run more plays from scrimmage.

NC State seems like a good team but they’ve averaged only 4.8 yppl while allowing 5.2 yppl this season. The reason they’ve been able to outscore their opponents by 1.5 points per game is because they’ve enjoyed significant 3rd-down conversion variance (+9.4%), which isn’t likely to continue given their overall metrics.

Virginia Tech is a Strong Opinion at -3 -110 odds or better.