Game Analysis

Independence Bowl

Monday, December 26 – 2 pm Pacific

NC State (-6)  27   Vanderbilt  20

Another battle of 6-6 teams that is not worth watching, and in this case not worth betting. The best units for each team are matched up against each other, as NC State is led by their offense while Vanderbilt is better defensively. That matchup is pretty even, as NC State’s attack is 0.3 yards per play better than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) while Vandy’s defense is 0.4 yppl better than average, having allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average defensive team.

The advantage for NC State is when Vandy’s sub-par offense has the football, as the Commodores are 0.4 yppl worse than average (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) while NC State’s defense has been 0.3 yppl better than average, allowing 5.7 yppl to a slate of offensive units that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense.

There are no interesting match ups or injury/personnel adjustments to discuss, so I’ll keep this analysis short. Aside from the yards per play advantage NC State also is projected to have a significant play differential in this game (73 plays to 59 plays). Overall, the math projects 406 yards at 5.5 yppl for NC State and 294 yards at 5.0 yppl for Vandy with a projected score of 27-20 in favor of the Wolfpack. There is a bit of value on the total but not enough to cover the -110 odds, so I have no opinion on the side or the total. I’d lean with the over if the total gets down to 43 points or less.