Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – New Mexico (+4.5)  31   UNLV  30

UNLV’s 6-0 start to the season was a mirage. The Rebels are a very good offensive team, rating at 0.7 yards per play better than average (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) but their defense was allowing nearly 450 yards per game at 6.3 yppl before reality smacked them in the face when they faced their first better than average offense at Boise (and gave up 56 points on 10.2 yppl). The Rebels are now 1.3 yppl worse than average defensively for the season (6.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) but I rate that unit at 1.1 yppl worse than average after adjusting for their outlier against Boise. New Mexico’s well-balanced attack (5.0 yprp and 6.7 yppp and only 0.1 yppl worse than average) should move the ball well in this game.

The Lobos’ defense is also pretty good by MWC standards, rating as average on a national scale (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team), which is 0.5 yppl better than the average defense the Rebels have faced this season.

New Mexico is a better team from the line of scrimmage and has slightly better special teams, but I do project UNLV with a 0.5 edge in turnovers, which is worth 2 points. Overall, I rate the Lobos as the better team, and they are a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more.