New Mexico
@ 
Boise St.
Game Analysis
BOISE STATE (-14 ½) 35 New Mexico 24
My ratings favor Boise State by 16 points if quarterback Brett Rypien plays, but he’s questionable to play due to a concussion suffered in last week’s come-from-ahead overtime loss to Washington State. I like Boise’s defense but the Broncos have had some trouble against teams that run an option offense in three seasons under coach Bryan Harsin. Boise is just 2-4 straight up and 1-5 ATS under Harsin against option teams Air Force and New Mexico, including losses as favorites of 13 points (Air Force in ’13), 31 points (New Mexico in ’14), 11 points (Air Force in ’14), and 9 points (Air Force last season). In the two games that Boise actually won straight up they gave up an average of 35 points.
If Rypien doesn’t play then former Kansas quarterback Montell Cozart will get the nod to lead the team and while he played well last week (7.0 yards per pass play and 79 yards on 12 runs) his numbers at Kansas were not good. Cozart has a better surrounding cast here at Boise but he’s still not likely to be as effective as Rypien would be. Regardless, I like New Mexico for technical reasons. Boise State applies to a 30-90-2 ATS conference home opener situation and the Broncos are just 2-19 ATS the last 6 seasons as a conference home favorite of more than 11 points.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- New Mexico
- Boise St.
Rush
- Run Plays 36.0 21.0
- Run Yards 219.5 73.5
- YPRP 6.4 4.2
Pass
- Pass Comp 16.0 34.5
- Pass Att 28.0 56.0
- Comp % 57.1% 61.6%
- Pass Yards 238.0 336.0
- Sacks 2.0 1.5
- Sack Yards 10.5 14.5
- Sack % 6.7% 2.6%
- Pass Plays 30.0 57.5
- Net Pass Yards 227.5 321.5
- YPPP 7.6 5.6
Total
- Total Plays 66.0 78.5
- Total Yards 457.5 409.5
- YPPL 6.9 5.2
TO
- Int 1.0 1.5
- Int % 3.6% 2.7%
- Fumbles 2.0 1.0
- Turnovers 3.0 2.5
- Points 33.0 22.0