Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – UTAH STATE (-14.5) 38 Nevada 17
I don’t understand why the line on this game dropped but now there is enough value to play Utah State, who is much better offensively with Cooper Legas at quarterback. Legas has completed 67% of his passes and averaged 7.7 yards on his 183 pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) while McCae Hillstead has completed just 60% of his passes and averaged only 5.9 yards on his 148 pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp).
I was frustrated when coach Anderson decided to start Hillstead instead of Legas a few weeks ago when I had a Strong Opinion on the Aggies against San Jose State after Legas had led the team to 76 points in two starts against Colorado State and Fresno State while Hillstead was out with an injury (I wouldn’t have made the play had I thought Hillstead might play). However, Anderson has stated that Legas will be the starter the rest of this season after he bailed out Hillstead (59 yards on 18 pass plays) last week in a win over San Diego State by tallying 145 yards on 18 pass plays.
Utah State’s offense had been 0.5 yppl better than average for the season (6.0 yppl against temas that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and I rate them at 0.7 yppl better with Legas at quarterback even after dampening the impact of his outlier game against Colorado State (350 yards on 35 pass plays). Nevada’s defense has allow 6.9 yppl this season (against teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average team) and I project the Aggies at 524 yards and 7.7 yppl in this game.
Utah State’s defense is 0.5 yppl worse than average but Nevada has a horrible offense that’s been 1.0 yppl worse than average (against other team’s starters) and they’ve averaged just 17.6 points against teams that are 0.3 yppl worse than Utah State’s defense rates (adjusted for Utah State being at home this game). The Wolf Pack are projected to gain just 296 yards at 4.0 yppl and that’s not close to good enough to keep up with the Aggies’ attack in this game.
Utah State is a Strong Opinion at -16 points or less.
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.3
31.7
-
Run Yards
151.1
176.0
-
YPRP
4.5
5.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
15.0
20.6
-
Pass Att
28.7
30.0
-
Comp %
52.3%
68.5%
-
Pass Yards
151.1
270.2
-
Sacks
3.1
1.7
-
Sack Yards
19.9
10.4
-
Sack %
9.8%
5.3%
-
Pass Plays
31.8
31.7
-
Net Pass Yards
131.2
259.8
-
YPPP
4.1
8.2
Total
-
Total Plays
65.1
63.3
-
Total Yards
282.3
435.8
-
YPPL
4.3
6.9
TO
-
Int
0.9
0.7
-
Int %
3.1%
2.2%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.6
1.5
Rush
-
Run Plays
32.3
38.1
-
Run Yards
155.9
190.3
-
YPRP
4.8
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
22.1
19.6
-
Pass Att
35.5
32.4
-
Comp %
62.3%
60.6%
-
Pass Yards
289.5
228.4
-
Sacks
3.4
1.6
-
Sack Yards
19.8
9.6
-
Sack %
8.7%
4.8%
-
Pass Plays
38.9
34.0
-
Net Pass Yards
269.8
218.8
-
YPPP
6.9
6.4
Total
-
Total Plays
71.1
72.1
-
Total Yards
425.6
409.0
-
YPPL
6.0
5.7
TO
-
Int
1.6
0.9
-
Int %
4.6%
2.7%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.9
-
Turnovers
2.1
1.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/02/23 @ USC |
14-66 |
+38.0
L
|
33/18 |
111/191 |
3.4/10.6 |
1/1 |
21/25 |
34/34 |
172/420 |
0/0 |
5/1 |
4.4/12.0 |
283/611 |
3.9/11.5 |
09/09/23 Idaho |
6-33 |
0.0
L
|
25/38 |
118/180 |
4.7/4.7 |
1/1 |
20/17 |
38/23 |
148/280 |
2/0 |
0/3 |
3.9/10.8 |
266/460 |
4.2/7.2 |
09/16/23 Kansas |
24-31 |
+28.0
W
|
35/37 |
147/155 |
4.2/4.2 |
0/1 |
15/21 |
22/27 |
111/283 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
4.6/9.8 |
258/438 |
4.4/6.6 |
09/23/23 @ Texas State |
24-35 |
+17.0
W
|
36/31 |
160/278 |
4.4/9.0 |
2/2 |
22/26 |
33/32 |
162/286 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
4.8/8.4 |
322/564 |
4.6/8.7 |
09/30/23 @ Fresno St. |
9-27 |
+24.5
W
|
24/24 |
89/107 |
3.7/4.5 |
0/0 |
17/28 |
35/37 |
86/269 |
2/2 |
7/2 |
2.0/6.9 |
175/376 |
2.7/6.0 |
10/14/23 UNLV |
27-45 |
+8.0
L
|
34/45 |
206/266 |
6.1/5.9 |
1/0 |
15/20 |
31/25 |
224/251 |
2/0 |
3/2 |
6.6/9.3 |
430/517 |
6.3/7.2 |
10/21/23 @ San Diego St. |
6-0 |
+11.5
W
|
34/38 |
173/165 |
5.1/4.3 |
0/1 |
9/6 |
22/14 |
72/41 |
0/0 |
3/1 |
2.9/2.7 |
245/206 |
4.2/3.9 |
10/28/23 New Mexico |
34-24 |
0.0
W
|
44/23 |
206/98 |
4.7/4.3 |
0/0 |
10/21 |
19/40 |
125/311 |
0/3 |
1/0 |
6.3/7.8 |
331/409 |
5.2/6.5 |
11/04/23 Hawaii |
14-27 |
-4.0
L
|
35/31 |
150/144 |
4.3/4.6 |
1/1 |
6/21 |
24/38 |
81/197 |
1/0 |
6/2 |
2.7/4.9 |
231/341 |
3.6/4.8 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/02/23 @ Iowa |
14-24 |
+24.0
W
|
23/34 |
126/100 |
5.5/2.9 |
0/0 |
32/19 |
48/33 |
203/195 |
1/0 |
1/1 |
4.1/5.7 |
329/295 |
4.6/4.3 |
09/09/23 Idaho State |
78-28 |
0.0
W
|
38/28 |
388/110 |
10.2/3.9 |
0/1 |
22/34 |
28/53 |
203/319 |
0/2 |
1/2 |
7.0/5.8 |
591/429 |
8.8/5.2 |
09/15/23 @ Air Force |
21-39 |
+9.5
L
|
21/63 |
83/351 |
4.0/5.6 |
1/0 |
20/3 |
35/4 |
219/77 |
1/0 |
5/1 |
5.5/15.4 |
302/428 |
5.0/6.3 |
09/23/23 James Madison |
38-45 |
+5.0
L
|
25/36 |
114/163 |
4.6/4.5 |
0/3 |
26/23 |
48/34 |
367/353 |
3/2 |
5/1 |
6.9/10.1 |
481/516 |
6.2/7.3 |
09/30/23 @ Connecticut |
34-33 |
-4.0
L
|
30/41 |
108/237 |
3.6/5.8 |
0/0 |
17/23 |
23/32 |
309/243 |
2/1 |
1/1 |
12.9/7.4 |
417/480 |
7.7/6.5 |
10/07/23 Colorado St. |
44-24 |
+3.0
W
|
49/24 |
290/103 |
5.9/4.3 |
2/2 |
19/26 |
29/57 |
350/220 |
2/3 |
6/1 |
10.0/3.8 |
640/323 |
7.6/3.9 |
10/13/23 Fresno St. |
32-37 |
+5.5
W
|
39/32 |
210/168 |
5.4/5.3 |
0/0 |
23/23 |
40/40 |
358/297 |
2/0 |
3/4 |
8.3/6.8 |
568/465 |
6.9/6.1 |
10/21/23 @ San Jose St. |
21-42 |
+5.5
L
|
32/46 |
120/267 |
3.8/5.8 |
1/2 |
17/15 |
29/20 |
148/106 |
2/0 |
1/3 |
4.9/4.6 |
268/373 |
4.3/5.4 |
11/04/23 @ San Diego St. |
32-24 |
-2.0
W
|
39/29 |
196/133 |
5.0/4.6 |
0/0 |
23/25 |
32/39 |
204/259 |
0/1 |
5/1 |
5.5/6.5 |
400/392 |
5.3/5.7 |