Nevada @

Utah St.

Sat, Nov 11
MW Network
12:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 173
Odds: Utah St. -14.5, Total: 55.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – UTAH STATE (-14.5)  38   Nevada  17

I don’t understand why the line on this game dropped but now there is enough value to play Utah State, who is much better offensively with Cooper Legas at quarterback. Legas has completed 67% of his passes and averaged 7.7 yards on his 183 pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) while McCae Hillstead has completed just 60% of his passes and averaged only 5.9 yards on his 148 pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp).

I was frustrated when coach Anderson decided to start Hillstead instead of Legas a few weeks ago when I had a Strong Opinion on the Aggies against San Jose State after Legas had led the team to 76 points in two starts against Colorado State and Fresno State while Hillstead was out with an injury (I wouldn’t have made the play had I thought Hillstead might play). However, Anderson has stated that Legas will be the starter the rest of this season after he bailed out Hillstead (59 yards on 18 pass plays) last week in a win over San Diego State by tallying 145 yards on 18 pass plays.

Utah State’s offense had been 0.5 yppl better than average for the season (6.0 yppl against temas that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and I rate them at 0.7 yppl better with Legas at quarterback even after dampening the impact of his outlier game against Colorado State (350 yards on 35 pass plays). Nevada’s defense has allow 6.9 yppl this season (against teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average team) and I project the Aggies at 524 yards and 7.7 yppl in this game.

Utah State’s defense is 0.5 yppl worse than average but Nevada has a horrible offense that’s been 1.0 yppl worse than average (against other team’s starters) and they’ve averaged just 17.6 points against teams that are 0.3 yppl worse than Utah State’s defense rates (adjusted for Utah State being at home this game). The Wolf Pack are projected to gain just 296 yards at 4.0 yppl and that’s not close to good enough to keep up with the Aggies’ attack in this game.

Utah State is a Strong Opinion at -16 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Nevada
  • Utah St.
NEV
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 33.3 31.7
  • Run Yards 151.1 176.0
  • YPRP 4.5 5.6




Pass





  • Pass Comp 15.0 20.6
  • Pass Att 28.7 30.0
  • Comp % 52.3% 68.5%
  • Pass Yards 151.1 270.2
  • Sacks 3.1 1.7
  • Sack Yards 19.9 10.4
  • Sack % 9.8% 5.3%
  • Pass Plays 31.8 31.7
  • Net Pass Yards 131.2 259.8
  • YPPP 4.1 8.2

Total

  • Total Plays 65.1 63.3
  • Total Yards 282.3 435.8
  • YPPL 4.3 6.9

TO


  • Int 0.9 0.7
  • Int % 3.1% 2.2%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.8
  • Turnovers 1.6 1.5
 
  • Points 17.6 32.0
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