Game Analysis
1-Star Best Bet – *Nevada (+25 -105) 23 BOISE STATE 40
Boise has been very impressive, as the Broncos have won and covered in every game against FBS opponents since losing by just 3 points as a 20-point dog at #1 Oregon in week 2. However, my math model suggests that the pendulum has swung too far and there is now value going against the Broncos.
Boise is going to score plenty of points, but the Broncos’ defense is nothing special (0.4 yppl better than average) and not being good defending the run (0.1 yprp worse than average) should enable Nevada’s run-oriented offense.
The Wolf Pack average over 200 run yards per game at 5.8 yprp and quarterback Brendon Lewis has run for 770 yards on 104 runs (not including sacks, which are pass plays in my model). Boise has faced two running quarterbacks this season and they allowed John Mateer (Washington State) and Hajj-Malik Williams (UNLV) to run for a combined total of 249 yards at 9.6 yards per run.
My math model suggests that Nevada can score enough to hang within the large number. Nevada is a 1-Star Best Bet at +24 points or more (Strong Opinion to +23).
Rush
-
Run Plays
35.6
31.8
-
Run Yards
205.7
164.1
-
YPRP
5.8
5.2
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.0
18.7
-
Pass Att
26.6
30.3
-
Comp %
67.7%
61.7%
-
Pass Yards
196.7
228.2
-
Sacks
1.8
1.4
-
Sack Yards
12.7
6.5
-
Sack %
6.3%
4.4%
-
Pass Plays
28.4
31.7
-
Net Pass Yards
184.0
221.7
-
YPPP
6.5
7.0
Total
-
Total Plays
64.0
63.5
-
Total Yards
389.7
385.8
-
YPPL
6.1
6.1
TO
-
Int
0.6
0.9
-
Int %
2.3%
3.0%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.0
-
Turnovers
1.0
0.9
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.6
27.7
-
Run Yards
262.1
143.1
-
YPRP
7.2
5.2
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.7
20.9
-
Pass Att
30.9
33.7
-
Comp %
63.9%
61.9%
-
Pass Yards
241.3
255.1
-
Sacks
0.9
4.9
-
Sack Yards
2.4
33.1
-
Sack %
2.7%
12.6%
-
Pass Plays
31.7
38.6
-
Net Pass Yards
238.9
222.0
-
YPPP
7.5
5.8
Total
-
Total Plays
68.3
66.3
-
Total Yards
501.0
365.1
-
YPPL
7.3
5.5
TO
-
Int
0.3
0.6
-
Int %
0.9%
1.7%
-
Fumbles
0.0
0.6
-
Turnovers
0.3
1.1
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/24/24 SMU |
24-29 |
+27.0
W
|
42/31 |
159/134 |
3.8/4.3 |
0/0 |
15/21 |
27/35 |
143/308 |
0/1 |
1/0 |
5.1/8.8 |
302/442 |
4.3/6.7 |
| 08/31/24 @ Troy |
28-26 |
+8.5
W
|
33/34 |
222/195 |
6.7/5.7 |
0/0 |
18/20 |
21/30 |
179/197 |
0/0 |
0/1 |
8.5/6.4 |
401/392 |
7.4/6.0 |
| 09/07/24 Georgia Southern |
17-20 |
0.0
L
|
40/18 |
236/44 |
5.9/2.4 |
1/0 |
23/23 |
35/37 |
265/241 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
7.4/6.3 |
501/285 |
6.6/5.1 |
| 09/14/24 @ Minnesota |
0-27 |
+17.5
L
|
27/31 |
85/174 |
3.1/5.6 |
0/0 |
15/16 |
23/26 |
87/182 |
3/1 |
4/1 |
3.2/6.7 |
172/356 |
3.2/6.1 |
| 09/21/24 Eastern Washington |
49-16 |
0.0
W
|
43/31 |
331/177 |
7.7/5.7 |
0/0 |
18/21 |
24/30 |
197/169 |
1/1 |
2/2 |
7.6/5.3 |
528/346 |
7.7/5.5 |
| 10/05/24 @ San Jose St. |
31-35 |
+7.0
W
|
34/25 |
205/119 |
6.0/4.8 |
0/0 |
23/23 |
31/42 |
211/323 |
1/0 |
2/1 |
6.4/7.5 |
416/442 |
6.2/6.5 |
| 10/12/24 Oregon St. |
42-37 |
+3.0
W
|
42/41 |
353/221 |
8.4/5.4 |
0/0 |
6/27 |
13/42 |
69/343 |
0/4 |
0/2 |
5.3/7.8 |
422/564 |
7.7/6.6 |
| 10/18/24 Fresno St. |
21-24 |
+3.0
T
|
33/36 |
146/145 |
4.4/4.0 |
0/0 |
16/13 |
25/20 |
177/171 |
0/1 |
4/2 |
6.1/7.8 |
323/316 |
5.2/5.4 |
| 10/26/24 @ Hawaii |
13-34 |
+2.5
L
|
25/35 |
116/261 |
4.6/7.5 |
1/0 |
26/14 |
39/25 |
270/138 |
1/1 |
3/4 |
6.4/4.8 |
386/399 |
5.8/6.2 |
| 11/02/24 Colorado St. |
21-38 |
+2.0
L
|
37/36 |
204/171 |
5.5/4.8 |
2/0 |
20/9 |
28/16 |
242/145 |
0/0 |
1/0 |
8.3/9.1 |
446/316 |
6.8/6.1 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/31/24 @ Georgia Southern |
56-45 |
-13.0
L
|
32/31 |
375/155 |
11.7/5.0 |
0/1 |
22/28 |
31/50 |
280/293 |
1/0 |
0/4 |
9.0/5.4 |
655/448 |
10.4/5.3 |
| 09/07/24 @ Oregon |
34-37 |
+20.5
W
|
32/31 |
222/142 |
6.9/4.6 |
0/2 |
17/18 |
40/21 |
147/206 |
0/0 |
1/4 |
3.6/8.2 |
369/348 |
5.1/6.2 |
| 09/21/24 Portland State |
56-14 |
0.0
W
|
37/34 |
351/168 |
9.5/4.9 |
1/0 |
21/12 |
28/20 |
288/89 |
0/0 |
1/4 |
9.9/3.7 |
639/257 |
9.7/4.4 |
| 09/28/24 Washington St. |
45-24 |
-7.0
W
|
34/32 |
278/156 |
8.2/4.9 |
0/0 |
12/26 |
21/37 |
184/260 |
1/1 |
0/7 |
8.8/5.9 |
462/416 |
8.4/5.5 |
| 10/05/24 Utah St. |
62-30 |
-27.0
W
|
39/33 |
308/138 |
7.9/4.2 |
0/1 |
26/27 |
32/41 |
319/328 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
9.4/7.8 |
627/466 |
8.6/6.2 |
| 10/12/24 @ Hawaii |
28-7 |
-20.5
W
|
37/15 |
243/61 |
6.6/4.1 |
0/0 |
17/21 |
25/36 |
212/218 |
0/0 |
2/9 |
7.9/4.8 |
455/279 |
7.1/4.7 |
| 10/25/24 @ UNLV |
29-24 |
-3.5
W
|
37/29 |
189/228 |
5.1/7.9 |
0/0 |
18/12 |
33/21 |
209/140 |
0/1 |
0/6 |
6.3/5.2 |
398/368 |
5.7/6.6 |
| 11/01/24 San Diego St. |
56-24 |
-23.5
W
|
45/23 |
220/122 |
4.9/5.3 |
0/0 |
26/14 |
34/30 |
321/109 |
0/2 |
1/3 |
9.2/3.3 |
541/231 |
6.8/4.1 |
Nevada
@ 
Boise St.