Game Analysis

Navy (-3/-2.5)  28   Kansas State  24

I often read about the advantage of having extra time to prepare for the option offense, but the reality is that the 3 military academies, which all run an option offense, are a combined 35-14 ATS in bowl games, including 22-4 ATS if they have a win percentage of greater than .667). So, Kansas State and their mediocre run defense having extra time to prepare is not really an advantage and the Midshipmen will avoid playing into the strength of the Wildcats’ defense, which is their secondary (0.6 yards per pass play better than average). Navy averaged 373 rushing yards per game at 6.4 yards per rushing play and 6.9 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.2 yprp and 5.9 yppl to an average team) and my math projects 6.7 yppl for the Middies in this game.

Kansas State’s run-oriented offense (60% runs) is just 0.1 yppl better than average and is playing into the strength of a Navy defense that has yielded just 4.3 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average defense. Navy’s pass defense is average but Kansas State will most likely stick to their game-plan of running the ball, which gives some match-up value to Navy’s defense. Kansas State is projected to average only 4.5 yprp and 5.5 yppl in this game.

Overall, Navy is projected to outgain Kansas State by 65 yards and 1.2 yards per pay but Kansas State once again has excellent special teams to help with field position and an excellent kicker that is 0.9 points per game better than average. But, the math still favors Navy by 4 points with a total of 52 points. I’ll pass.