Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – CHARLOTTE (+3)  23   Navy  19

Charlotte is not a good team, as the 49ers have been 0.8 yards per play worse than average offensively and 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively this season. However, Navy is just as bad, as the Midshipmen have been 0.9 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.7 yppl worse than average on defense.

These teams have been equal from the line of scrimmage and the matchups are in Charlotte’s favor. The 49ers’ biggest issue defensively is their pass defense, but Navy runs the ball 78% of the time and has averaged a modest 21 points per game against a slate of FBS teams that are slightly worse collectively on defense than Charlotte’s defense.

Charlotte has trouble throwing the ball but they 49ers have a better than average run game (5.1 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) and defending the run is Navy’s biggest issue defensively, as the Middies have given up 5.9 yprp to FBS teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average team. Charlotte should average more than 6 yards per run, and they won’t have to throw it as often in this matchup as they normally do, which is a positive.

Charlotte is a Strong Opinion at +3 -115 odds or better.