Game Analysis

TENNESSEE (-13/-12.5)  27   Missouri  19

I’m not as high on Tennessee as the market is and the Vols played a couple of points below my preseason rating in last week’s turnover-aided 31-27 win at South Carolina (+2 in turnover margin). Missouri’s offense struggled last week (3.6 yards per play) before Alabama mixed in some backups on defense (although, some starters were still on the field) and registered a couple of scores for their backdoor cover (from 6-35 to a 19-38 final score). However, Missouri’s defense was good last season (0.7 yards per play better than average) and the Tigers should be even better on that side of the ball in 2020. Allowing only 4.9 yards per run to Alabama’s starting offense was impressive and giving up 10.4 yards per pass play to Mac Jones is not bad at all considering that I rate Jones at 10.7 yppp versus an average FBS defense. My ratings favor the Vols by just 8 points with a total of 45.5 points and I may play a bit on the Tennessee Team Total Under 31 or higher if it’s available at that number.