Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Missouri (+2.5)  29   KENTUCKY  23

Kentucky had been just 2.8 points better than an average team before losing 13-51 at Georgia last week and the Wildcats are now slightly worse than average from the line of scrimmage for the season.

Kentucky moves the ball on the ground at an elite level, averaging 7.0 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp) but quarterback Devin Leary has completed just 54.8% of his passes for only 6.6 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would allow 7.4 yppp to an average quarterback. He’s managed just 169 yards on 49 pass plays the last two weeks against Florida and Georgia and doesn’t seem capable of throwing the ball consistently against a decent pass defense. Missouri is average defending the pass but the Tigers have been 1.1 yprp better than average defending the run (4.3 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yprp) and they are even better when needing only to defend running backs, as Jalen Daniels of LSU ran for 141 yards on 13 runs last week. Leary doesn’t run the ball and the Tigers should be able to slow down Kentucky’s run game, as Mizzou has been 1.4 yprp better than average against running backs.

Missouri’s offense may not be able to run that well against a good Kentucky run defense (0.9 yprp better than average) but Brady Cook has averaged 8.9 yppp and has been 2.1 yppp better than average this season and he should light up a sub-par Kentucky pass defense that’s allowed 6.2 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.7 yppp against an average pass defense. The only better than average pass attack that Kentucky faced was last week against Georgia when they gave up 11.1 yppp to Carson Beck, who is at about the same level as Cook.

Missouri is a clearly better team, as the Tigers rate at 0.3 yppl better on defense and 0.6 yppl better than Kentucky offensively. I’ll take Missouri in a 1-Star Best Bet at +1.5 points or more (Strong Opinion at +1).