Game Analysis

FLORIDA (-13 ½)  33   Missouri  22

Luke Del Rio returns at quarterback for Florida after missing a few weeks with an injured knee, but that news is really inconsequential, as Del Rio’s compensated numbers aren’t much better than those of backup Austin Appleby. Florida’s offense is a bit below average and Missouri’s defense is a bit better than average so the Gators are not likely to move the ball at an efficient rate (my model projects just 5.4 yards per play). However, Florida has allowed 7 points or fewer in 4 of their 5 games and have allowed just 4.1 yppl this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team). Missouri’s offense is hit of miss, as the Tigers depend on big pass plays from strong-armed, but inaccurate, quarterback Drew Lock. Lock has completed only 56.8% of his passes but he’s averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt because of the big play nature of the offense (14.8 yards per completion). That creates an interesting matchup against a Florida defense that has held opponents to just 39.0% completions but has been susceptible to the big plays (15.2 yards per completion allowed). It will only take a few big plays for Missouri to be right in this game and I can also see the Tigers being completely shut down if they can’t connect on the deep ball. There is a lot of variance in this game but I’ll lean slightly with Missouri.