Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *MISSISSIPPI  (-24.5)  48   Mississippi State  16

Mississippi State is 4-0 ATS as an underdog of more than 17 points this season, but Ole’ Miss coach Lane Kiffin is a bully and his team is 4-0 ATS laying 21 points or more this season. The Rebels could be emotionally flat after last week’s loss put them on the outside looking in in regards to the CFB Playoffs, but there is till a chance they can make it in and this is their rivalry game – so I’m going to assume they’ll be ready to go.

The Ole’ Miss offense should surpass their 38.5 points per game average against a horrible Miss State defense that’s allowed 73% completions and 8.9 yards per pass play to FBS opponents this season. The Bulldogs are not bad defending the run (average on an FBS scale) and the Rebels will likely run the ball a bit more with a big lead – although they’ve certainly shown that they’re not against running up the score. I expect a ton of yards and points from the Rebels’ attack even without RB Parrish (worth about a point) and WR Tre Harris (the pass game has been just as elite in the games he’s missed). My math model projects 646 yards at 8.2 yards per play for Ole Miss in this game.

Mississippi State has a pretty good offense that’s been 0.4 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) but that unit is barely better than the average FBS team that the Rebels have faced this season – and allowed just 15.3 points per game to.

The math projects a win of 34.2 points with starters in the entire game and 32 points with some garbage time expected, and I’ll take Mississippi in a 1-Star Best Bet at -25 points or less  to -115 odds (Strong Opinion to -26.5 points).