Game Analysis

Mississippi State (-12.5)  37   MISSISSIPPI  23

This game pits strength against strength with Mississippi’s explosive offense squaring off against Miss State’s elite defense. The Rebels’ attack has averaged 541 yards per game at a very impressive 7.4 yards per play and rate at 1.8 yards per play better than average after adjusting for opposing defenses. The Bulldogs’ defense has been 1.5 yppl better than average (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team) but they performed relatively better against better offensive teams and limited Alabama to a season low (by far) 4.8 yards per play and 24 points. The Bulldogs also held other good offensive teams UL Lafayette, Florida and Texas A&M to an average of 12.0 points. Mississippi’s attack is closer to Alabama’s level than those other 3 but the math model projection of 26 points could be a stretch given how well the Miss State defense has performed against other very good offensive teams.

Ole’ Miss, meanwhile, averaged only 4.6 yards per play and 11.5 points against the other two elite defensive teams that they faced this season (Alabama and LSU). My math model projects 26 points for the Rebels in this game but there is enough evidence to suggest that number is too high.

The Mississippi State attack is vulnerable to teams that can stop the run since Nick Fitzgerald is challenged as a passer (just 51.9% completions). However, Ole’ Miss is worst than average defending the run and even worse against the pass so the Bulldogs should perform well offensively in this game (my model projects 6.9 yards per play).

The math only favors Mississippi State by 11 points but they’ve proven that they can limit good offensive teams while Mississippi’s offense has not proven able to succeed against elite defensive teams. The Bulldogs also apply to a 79-21-2 ATS situation so I’ll lean with them to cover despite the math leaning the other way.