Mississippi vs

Penn St.

at Atlanta
Sat, Dec 30
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 265
Odds: Penn St. -5, Total: 48.5

Game Analysis

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Penn State (-5/-4.5)  26   Mississippi  23

This game is going to be determined in a battle of strength versus strength between the Ole Miss offense and the Penn State defense.

Mississippi’s attack has been 1.0 yards per play better than average this season (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and is intact for this game, aside from injured RT Micah Pettus. Penn State’s defense was one of the nation’s best this season, yielding just 11.8 points per game and 4.0 yppl (with starters in the game) against teams that would gain 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. It looks like just two Penn State defenders won’t play in the game, as DE Chop Robinson has stated that he’s skipping this game and CB Johnny Dixon hasn’t been seen at practices that were open to the media. CB Kalen King, a likely first-round NFL draft pick, is set to play, as are LB Jacobs and CB Hardy. Penn State is projected to be 0.2 yppl worse without those two players and I project 348 yards at 5.4 yppl for the Rebels, which includes the positive adjustment for playing in a dome.

Penn State is offensively challenged, as the Nittany Lions managed just 5.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack. The Rebels’ defense only allowed 22.3 points per game and 5.4 yppl, despite giving up 10.1 yppl to Georgia) and they held every mediocre or worse offense they faced to 21 points or fewer. Only LSU, Texas A&M, and Georgia topped 24 points against Mississippi and the only other teams to top 21 points were good offensive teams Georgia Tech (23 points) and Alabama (24 points). Ole Miss will be without pass-rusher Cedric Johnson, who has opted out of the bowl. Johnson had 5.5 sacks, which tied for the team lead, and is worth 0.8 points based on my algorithm. I still rate the Rebels’ defense at 0.5 yppl better than average without Johnson and project 409 yards at 5.4 yppl for Penn State in this game.

The math favors Penn State by 3.7 points with 49.4 total points and the Nittany Lions apply to a 19-57 ATS bowl situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Mississippi
  • Penn St.


  • Run Plays 38.1 35.6
  • Run Yards 193.4 170.4
  • YPRP 5.1 4.8


  • Pass Comp 19.1 19.5
  • Pass Att 29.4 31.1
  • Comp % 64.9% 62.7%
  • Pass Yards 274.4 223.1
  • Sacks 2.2 2.8
  • Sack Yards 13.6 18.5
  • Sack % 6.9% 8.3%
  • Pass Plays 31.6 33.9
  • Net Pass Yards 260.8 204.6
  • YPPP 8.3 6.0


  • Total Plays 69.7 69.5
  • Total Yards 454.3 375.0
  • YPPL 6.5 5.4


  • Int 0.5 1.0
  • Int % 1.7% 3.2%
  • Fumbles 0.1 0.3
  • Turnovers 0.6 1.3
  • Points 34.8 22.3
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