Game Analysis

Mississippi (-10)  34   MISSISSIPPI STATE  22

Both of these teams are coming off easy wins over inferior non-conference opponents but Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers struggled in his return to the lineup, averaging just 5.2 yards per pass play against a Southern Miss pass defense that would allow 7.7 yppp on the road to an average FBS quarterback. Rogers has been 0.8 yppp worse than average for the season and the Bulldogs’ attack is 0.3 yards per play worse than average FBS offense with Rogers in the game. That’s not good enough to move the ball consistently against a solid Ole Miss defense that’s been 0.5 yppl better than average this season – even with the 10.1 yppl that they gave up to Georgia two weeks ago.

Miss State isn’t as good defensively (just 0.3 yppl better than average) and the Rebels have averaged 6.7 yppl and 36.5 points per game against a schedule of teams that is just 0.2 yppl worse, collectively, on defense than Miss State is. The Ole Miss offense should produce good numbers on a still night in Starkville (forecast is 0 mph wind).

The math favors Mississippi by 11.5 points and the revenging team in his rivalry is 21-9-2 ATS since 1991 (Mississippi State won in a minor upset last season).