Game Analysis
LSU (-7 ½) 38 Mississippi 29
Ole’ Miss is still a very good team despite their 3-3 record but the fact that the Rebels do not have a good run defense this season is why I’m lean against them. LSU is an offense that struggles against good teams that can stop the run. We saw that year a few times (averaged just 16 points in a 3 game losing streak against Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole’ Miss) and again this season against Wisconsin (14 points), Miss State (23 points) and Auburn (13 points). Mississippi has allowed 238 rushing yards per game at 5.7 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yprp against an average team) and that is not good enough to slow down an LSU attack that has averaged 7.0 yprp this season against teams that are collectively 0.4 yprp better than the Rebels defending the run.
I’d like LSU even more if not for Chad Kelly’s habit of playing well against really good defensive teams, as he did once again last month against Alabama with over 400 passing yards at 9.4 yards per pass play. LSU has a very good defense but Kelly has proven many times that he can have success throwing the ball against good defensive teams. I’ll still lean with LSU but I think the over may be the way to go if you want to wager on this game.
Rush
-
Run Plays
30.7
42.5
-
Run Yards
156.8
225.0
-
YPRP
5.5
5.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
23.0
20.3
-
Pass Att
37.2
34.3
-
Comp %
61.9%
59.2%
-
Pass Yards
320.0
226.3
-
Sacks
1.8
1.8
-
Sack Yards
11.7
12.7
-
Sack %
4.7%
5.1%
-
Pass Plays
39.0
36.2
-
Net Pass Yards
308.3
213.7
-
YPPP
7.9
5.9
Total
-
Total Plays
69.7
78.7
-
Total Yards
476.8
451.3
-
YPPL
6.8
5.7
TO
-
Int
1.2
0.8
-
Int %
3.1%
2.4%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.7
-
Turnovers
1.5
1.5
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.8
32.2
-
Run Yards
229.3
106.0
-
YPRP
7.0
3.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
14.0
19.2
-
Pass Att
24.5
33.2
-
Comp %
57.1%
57.8%
-
Pass Yards
180.5
208.3
-
Sacks
1.3
2.8
-
Sack Yards
7.0
17.8
-
Sack %
5.1%
7.9%
-
Pass Plays
25.8
36.0
-
Net Pass Yards
173.5
190.5
-
YPPP
6.7
5.3
Total
-
Total Plays
59.7
68.2
-
Total Yards
409.8
314.3
-
YPPL
6.9
4.6
TO
-
Int
0.7
0.7
-
Int %
2.7%
2.0%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.7
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.3
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/05/16 @ Florida St. |
34-45 |
+5.5
L
|
20/38 |
105/177 |
5.3/4.7 |
1/0 |
21/33 |
39/52 |
275/403 |
3/0 |
5/3 |
6.3/7.3 |
380/580 |
5.9/6.2 |
| 09/10/16 Wofford |
38-13 |
0.0
W
|
34/57 |
174/233 |
5.1/4.1 |
0/1 |
22/5 |
30/9 |
242/72 |
1/0 |
0/0 |
8.1/8.0 |
416/305 |
6.5/4.6 |
| 09/17/16 Alabama |
43-48 |
+11.0
W
|
30/45 |
120/355 |
4.0/7.9 |
1/1 |
26/19 |
41/31 |
405/149 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
9.4/4.7 |
525/504 |
7.2/6.5 |
| 09/24/16 Georgia |
45-14 |
-7.0
W
|
28/41 |
185/242 |
6.6/5.9 |
0/1 |
21/16 |
30/36 |
328/125 |
1/1 |
1/3 |
10.6/3.2 |
513/367 |
8.7/4.6 |
| 10/01/16 Memphis |
48-28 |
-14.5
W
|
43/29 |
268/144 |
6.2/5.0 |
0/1 |
30/30 |
44/46 |
356/331 |
1/3 |
1/1 |
7.9/7.0 |
624/475 |
7.1/6.3 |
| 10/15/16 @ Arkansas |
30-34 |
-7.5
L
|
29/45 |
159/275 |
5.5/6.1 |
0/0 |
18/19 |
39/32 |
244/202 |
1/1 |
2/3 |
6.0/5.8 |
403/477 |
5.8/6.0 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/16 @ Wisconsin |
14-16 |
-11.0
L
|
27/37 |
136/148 |
5.0/4.0 |
1/1 |
12/19 |
21/31 |
121/197 |
2/2 |
2/2 |
5.3/6.0 |
257/345 |
5.1/4.9 |
| 09/10/16 Jacksonville State |
34-13 |
0.0
W
|
36/30 |
250/136 |
6.9/4.5 |
1/0 |
8/17 |
19/35 |
121/234 |
1/1 |
1/3 |
6.1/6.2 |
371/370 |
6.6/5.4 |
| 09/17/16 Mississippi St. |
23-20 |
-13.5
L
|
38/26 |
181/84 |
4.8/3.2 |
1/1 |
19/17 |
32/32 |
215/184 |
0/0 |
0/5 |
6.7/5.0 |
396/268 |
5.7/4.3 |
| 09/24/16 @ Auburn |
13-18 |
-3.5
L
|
29/46 |
237/181 |
8.2/3.9 |
1/1 |
15/19 |
27/26 |
101/207 |
0/0 |
3/3 |
3.4/7.1 |
338/388 |
5.7/5.2 |
| 10/01/16 Missouri |
42-7 |
-11.5
W
|
50/20 |
423/92 |
8.5/4.6 |
0/0 |
19/18 |
30/38 |
215/173 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
6.9/4.3 |
638/265 |
7.9/4.4 |
| 10/15/16 Southern Miss |
45-10 |
-24.5
W
|
23/34 |
191/102 |
8.3/3.0 |
0/1 |
11/25 |
18/37 |
268/148 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
14.1/3.8 |
459/250 |
10.9/3.4 |
