Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (54.5) – Auburn (-7)  26   Minnesota  23

Lean – Minnesota (+7)

Minnesota certainly isn’t as good as their 10-2 record but Auburn’s mediocre offense should keep the Gophers in this game according to my math. However, the better play appears to be the under, as Minnesota’s games were randomly higher scoring that they should have been, which has elevated the Over/Under line in this game.

Minnesota struggled offensively at the beginning of the season (just 5.1 yppl in non-conference games against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average offense) but quarterback Tanner Morgan heated up after the week 4 bye week just in time for Big-10 play. From that point on the Gophers averaged 6.9 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack and that unit played well against 4 good defensive teams in their final 4 regular season games (6.7 yppl against Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin, who would allow 4.8 yppl to an average offensive team). Auburn is the best defense that Minnesota has faced this season and the key to this game will be how well the Gophers’ big-play aerial attack (15.7 yards per completion) performs against an Auburn secondary that allowed a very low 10.3 yards per catch. Auburn faced 3 very good pass attacks this season in Florida, LSU, and Alabama (with Mac Jones at QB) and the Tigers allowed a reasonable 6.9 yards per pass play, which is 2.5 yppp less than the 9.4 yppp that those 3 quarterbacks would combine to average against an average defensive team. Auburn held Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow to just 6.8 yppp and also held Oregon’s Justin Herbert to only 5.5 yppp. Morgan did play relatively better against better pass defenses but Auburn’s defense was relatively better against better quarterbacks and my math projects 6.75 yppp for Minnesota in this game and only 3.8 yard per rushing play for a total of 324 yards at 5.15 yards per play.

Auburn’s offense averaged a modest 5.8 yards per play this season and the Tigers’ attack rates at just 0.1 yppl better than average after adjusting for quarterback Bo Nix’ positive outlier (13.3 yards per pass play against Miss State). Minnesota’s defense was 0.58 yppl better than average this season but I rate that unit at 0.41 yppl better than average without top tackler (on a per game basis) LB Kamal Martin, who is sitting this game out. Martin missed 4 games this season and the Gophers’ run defense rating was 0.3 yards per rushing play worse than their season rating in those 4 games. Minnesota still has an advantage when Auburn has the ball and the math projects 366 yards at 5.4 yppl for the Tigers in this game.

Overall my math favors Auburn by just 4.7 points and projects only 49.1 total points (with the good weather conditions factored in) and the main reason that the Over/Under in this game is higher is because it’s based on compensated scoring, which would project 55.7 total points. However, Minnesota’s games featured 7 defensive touchdowns and 5.55 points per red zone opportunity, as the Gophers’ offense averaged 5.6 points per red zone opportunity while their better than average defense allowed 5.4 points per red zone – both of which are extremely high given their statistics and added 4.2 points per game over their projected offensive and defensive points per red zone – most of which is variance. Auburn’s combined 5.0 ppRZ was also higher than what would be projected (4.8 ppRZ) and added about 1.8 points per game over expectations. If these teams continue to have higher than expected red zone efficiencies then the total on this game is about right but it’s unlikely that those high points per red zone numbers continue and that leads to value on the under. The Under is a Strong Opinion at 54 points or higher and I’d play the Under for 1-Star if the total goes up to 55 points (at -110 odds). And, I’ll lean with Minnesota plus the points, as that math leans their way and the Gophers apply to a 41-9-1 ATS bowl situation.