Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Middle Tennessee (-3 -115)  29   SAM HOUSTON STATE  18

Sam Houston State is 2-9 with one of their wins being a horrible performance in a 24-21 home win against FCS team Kennesaw State (favored by 16.5) and the other was against Louisiana Tech in a game they were outgained 413 yards at 6.9 yppl to 500 yards at 7.4 yppl but won because of randomly being +4 in turnovers.

Middle Tennessee has had a disappointing season, as they sit at 4-7. However, the Blue Raiders have won their last two games and lost only one game this season in which I projected them to win (a home loss to Jacksonville State, who is 8-3 and better than expected) and 3 of their 7 losses were to ranked teams Alabama, Missouri, and Liberty – and they only lost by 7 at Liberty and by just 4 at Missouri.

The Blue Raiders are better than their record, as they rate at just 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively on a national scale (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average FBS team) and they’re just 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl). Sam Houston, meanwhile, is 1.3 yppl worse than average on offense (4.7 yppl vs 6.1 yppl) and 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively (6.0 yppl vs 5.5 yppl).

The line is lower than it should be because Sam Houston has been more lucky in turnovers than MTSU has been and the Blue Raiders have experienced negative red zone efficiency variance, as they’ve averaged only 4.4 points per red zone opportunity while allowing 5.2 PPRZ. A team that has averaged 5.8 yppl and allowed 5.8 yppl should be about even in red zone efficiency differential and the difference equates to 2.1 points per game, which I think is true line value in this case.

Middle Tennessee is a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less