Game Analysis

Hawaii Bowl

Saturday, December 24 – 5 pm Pacific

Middle Tennessee State (-6 ½)  39   HAWAII  32

There was no line on this game until just recently because of the uncertainty of Middle Tennessee State quarterback Brent Stockstill, who missed the final 3 ½ games of the regular season. Stockstill is officially listed as questionable and a game-time decision but that’s apparently just something the coaching staff is saying to keep Hawaii guessing. Stockstill has been practicing with the first team offense and he was quoted as saying, “First of all I am going to play.” Seems pretty definitive to me. In the final game of the regular season backup quarterback John Urzua, who is terrible, unfortunately got injured and the coaching staff decided to run the Wildcat offense with receivers and running backs taking snaps from center and mostly running. It was unfortunate because I had Florida Atlantic +17 in that game and the Owls were not prepared for the Wildcat and lost 56-77. The MTS coaching staff no doubt wants Hawaii to have to spend time preparing for both Stockstill and the Wildcat, which I believe is why they are listing Stockstill as questionable.

I’ll assume Stockstill is playing but I suspect that the Blue Raiders will also run some plays out of the Wildcat given how successful it was against FAU. In the first 9 weeks with Stockstill at quarterback, Middle Tennessee averaged 38.4 points on 519 yards at 6.9 yards per play against 7 FBS teams that would combine to allow 33.5 points and 6.0 yppl. That attack should move the ball with ease against a Hawaii defense that’s allowed an average of 37.5 points and 6.4 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would average 27.1 points and 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. My math projects 527 total yards at 7.5 yppl for the Blue Raiders in this game.

Hawaii is capable of keeping up, as their mediocre attack (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl) has an advantage over a Middle Tennessee defense that has allowed 37.5 points per game on 481 yards at 5.6 yppl to FBS teams that would combine to average only 25.0 points and 5.4 yppl against an average team. The compensated yards per play numbers aren’t bad but the Blue Raiders’ opponents ran over 85 plays per game, which is nearly 13 more plays per game than their own offense ran (because their offense tends to score quickly off big plays). Hawaii has a negative play differential too, and Hawaii runs their offense at a slower than average pace, so Middle Tennessee isn’t likely to give up as many yards as they normally do even though Hawaii is better offensively than the average of the teams that the Blue Raiders have faced. I project 440 yards at 6.1 yppl for the Warriors in this game.
With Stockstill at quarterback, I would favor MTS by 7 points with a total of 71 ½ points, so there is no value in this game. Thus, I have no opinion on the side or total.