Game Analysis

**UNDER (63 ½) – ARKANSAS STATE (-3 ½)  30   Middle Tennessee State  26

The total on this game opened at 58 points but climbed up to 63.5 points by Friday, which offers us good value on the under. I can understand that people see Arkansas State averaging 38 points in their 10 FBS games and Middle Tennessee State averaging 36 points in their 4 games since quarterback Brent Stockstill returned to the lieup and think this game will be high scoring. However, my math doesn’t see it that way.

While Arkansas State did indeed put up good offensive numbers (37.6 points on 509 yards per game at 6.5 yards per play with starting QB Hansen in the game), the Red Wolves did so against an absolutely horrible collection of opposing defensive units. The teams that Arkansas State faced would allow 36.1 points and 6.6 yppl to an average offensive team, so their 6.5 yppl is actually worse than what an average team would gain per play against that same schedule of teams. Middle Tennessee State, at 0.1 yards per play better than average on a national scale (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average defense), is the best defense that Arkansas State has seen this season and my math projects just 5.4 yppl for the Red Wolves in this game, which is below average. Arkansas State will run a lot of plays with their up-tempo attack (82 projected) so they should score a better than average number of points, but they are unlikely to come close to their 37.6 points average now that they’re facing a quality defense that has allowed just 24 points per game.

Middle Tennessee State’s offense appears to have gotten better with the return of Brent Stockstill, who missed 6 games with an injured shoulder, but that is actually not the case, as the Blue Raiders just faced 4 bad defensive teams to end the season. For the season MTS was 0.7 yards per pass play worse than average (6.2 yppp against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average team) but Stockstill was actually worse than that this season, as he averaged 6.2 yppp in his 6 games while facing teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average quarterback. Stockstill’s numbers look much better in those final 4 games at the end of the season but he was still 0.8 yppp worse than average in those games, averaging 6.8 yppp against teams that would allow 7.6 yppp to an average QB. Stockstill is less interception prone (5 picks in 6 games) than his backup John Urzua (9 interceptions in his 6 games) but the offense is no better with Stockstill at moving the ball than their season rating of 0.4 yppl worse than average. There has also been some talk about an improved running game with Terelle West as the starter after he ran for 170 yards against Old Dominion in the finale after missing much of the season. However, my grandmother could gain 100-plus yards against Old Dominion’s swiss cheese defense and West’s 5.2 yards per rush average this season is worse than both Brad Anderson (5.5 ypr) and Tavares Thomas (5.9 ypr), so it’s possible that the Raiders’ rush attack might be worse with West getting the bulk of the carries – although I assumed it would be the same.

Arkansas State has a pretty solid defense that allowed just 27 points and 5.5 yppl to FBS teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team and my math projects 5.4 yppl for Middle Tennessee State, which is also below average.

I do project a lot of plays to be run in this game (153) but both teams are projected to average only 5.4 yppl and 825 total combined yards does not come close to equating to more than 60 points. My model is based on projected stats and not points scored and allowed, but a compensated points model would project only 52 total points, which is even lower. I’ll go Under in a 2-Star Best Bet at 62 points or higher (Strong Opinion down to 61 points).