Game Analysis

Note: The total on this game has dropped down to 51.5 since releasing it to my subscribers at Under 54.5.

Strong Opinion – Under (54.5) – ALABAMA (-39)  43   Middle Tennessee State  3

Alabama isn’t likely to be as explosive offensively without Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Bryce Young and new quarterbacks Jalen Milroe and Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner have both been inconsistent throwing the ball when they have played. Milroe has completed just 56.7% of his 60 career passes while Buchner has also completed just 56.7% of his 118 career passes. Milroe is an explosive runner, but I doubt Nick Saban would want to expose either quarterback to injury by having them run in a game they should win easily.

I expect a conservative gameplan from Alabama with a lot of running from a good stable of running backs, but Middle Tennessee should once again have a good run defense. The Blue Raiders yielded just 4.3 yards per rushing play last season (against teams that would combine to average 4.7 yprp against an average team) and that unit returns 8 starters, including 3 of 4 defensive lineman. MTSU was a bit worse than average defending the pass last season but should improve in that area and they rate as a bit better than average overall defensively heading into this season.

Alabama’s defense is obviously among the best in the nation while Middle Tennessee projects to be even worse offensively than they were last season (1.1 yppl worse than average) without quarterback Chase Cunningham and last season’s top 3 receivers, including Jaylin Lane, who averaged 9.5 yards per target.

Bama doesn’t usually let up defensively when installed as huge favorites, as the Crimson Tide have allowed 7 points or fewer in 36 of 51 games under coach Saban when they have been favored by 30 points or more while yielding 3 points or fewer in nearly half of those games (23 of 51). With their big game versus Texas next week, I don’t think that Bama will be opening up the play book in this game. They are likely to simply run the ball a lot and let their defense secure an easy win. But running on Middle Tennessee is not likely to be as easy as it normally would be in a game with such a huge spread and the Tide are 62% under in those games as a 30-point favorite or more.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 54 points or more.