Game Analysis

Michigan (-4.5)  33   OHIO STATE  24

Ohio State’s only strengths this season are their special teams and the play of their quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who has averaged 8.3 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB). The Buckeyes’ rushing attack is 0.3 yards per rushing play below average and their defense is 0.2 yards per play worse than average (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense).

Michigan, meanwhile, has the nation’s second best defense (1.8 yards per play better than average), which is 0.7 yppl better than the Ohio State offense and Michigan’s offense (6.4  yppl against teams that would lalow 5.4 yppl) is only 0.2 yppl worse than the Buckeyes’ attack and has a huge edge over the Buckeyes’ mediocre defense. Michigan also has special teams units that are nearly as good as Ohio State’s special teams.

My math model projects Michigan to gain 441 yards at 6.9 yppl while allowing just 342 yards at 5.0 yppl to the Buckeyes. The projected stats would predict Michigan to win this game by 10 points but I’m going to resist playing the Wolverines here. Urban Meyer has a strong tendency to get the best out of his team against better opposition. In fact, Meyer’s teams at Utah, Florida and Ohio State are a combined 19-2 ATS from -1 to underdog (i.e. when not favored by more than 1 point), including 9-0 STRAIGHT UP in that spread range while at Ohio State. The fact that Ohio State hasn’t lost a game as an underdog under Meyer deserves respect. But, my math model deserves respect too and I was on Ohio State in a lot of those upset wins and this time the math is squarely against them.