Michigan @ Michigan St. Matchup Analysis

Michigan St.

Sat, Oct 25

NBC

4:30 PM Pacific

Rotation: 137

Odds: Michigan St. +14, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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Michigan (-14) 34 MICHIGAN STATE 18

My math model would favor Michigan by 12 points (50 total points) if star RB Justice Haynes (705 yards at 7.4 ypr in 6 games) is out again this week and by 15.5 points (54 total points) if he plays, is 100% healthy, and gets his normal amount of carries.

I think 14 points is a fair line given his questionable status but Michigan applies to a very good 121-41-4 ATS big road favorite situation so I’d prefer to be on the Wolverines regardless of Haynes’ status.